CK013’s MLB Best Bets (FREE) – 4/11/19


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Use the units to determine both a confidence meter and a rubric on how much to wager. It is a good idea to keep units a metric to help you manage your bankroll and understand how much you’re up or down. You determine what the value of each unit is but it is important to try you’re best to stay consistent with the value of the unit. Going up or down based off of your available bankroll is fine but stay as disciplined as you can, bankroll management is just as important if not more the actual handicapping of games.

Keep in mind that there is juice to pay to the books so if a line is -110 that would mean you would need to risk 1.1 units to win 1.

For example: If one unit = $100, you would need to risk $110 to win $100 on a -110 bet.

My Notes: First official losing streak of the MLB season after we lost two games in a row. Time to right this ship.

2019 MLB Record YTD: 14-4 (+18.9 Units)

MLB Best Bets

Pittsburgh Pirates +120, *2 Units to win 2.4*

Musgrove has actually pitched very well against these Cubbies. The winds have changed and now pretty much neutral and if the Cubs can’t hit Musgrove they could be trouble. The Cubs entire pitching staff from the starters to the bullpen has been in shambles to start the season and I like the Pirates odds and chances to pull this one out especially once the Cubs pen gets involved.

San Diego Padres +115, *2 Units to win 2.3*

The Padres new and improved offense will see a familiar face in Zack Godley. Godley has had a rough time with the Padres in the past. Franmill Reyes, Hunter Renfroe and Will Myers have made things difficult for him and they are in position to do the same again with a struggling bullpen behind the bullpen with highest xFIP on the season at 5.80.

Colorado Rockies -110, *2.2 Units to win 2*

The Giants offense has been a little warmer but they will get a big test tonight against Jon Gray. Gray had a rough outing in Coors against one of the hottest offenses in the league (Dodgers) but now gets one of the best pitching parks in the game. The Giants have been striking out a pretty high amount to start the 2019 season and Samardzija is not very good.