CK013’s MLB Best Bets (FREE) – 4/16/19


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Use the units to determine both a confidence meter and a rubric on how much to wager. It is a good idea to keep units a metric to help you manage your bankroll and understand how much you’re up or down. You determine what the value of each unit is but it is important to try you’re best to stay consistent with the value of the unit. Going up or down based off of your available bankroll is fine but stay as disciplined as you can, bankroll management is just as important if not more the actual handicapping of games.

Keep in mind that there is juice to pay to the books so if a line is -110 that would mean you would need to risk 1.1 units to win 1.

For example: If one unit = $100, you would need to risk $110 to win $100 on a -110 bet.

My Notes: 1-1 yesterday but we lost juice. Need a winning day.

2019 MLB Record YTD: 20-10 (+20.7 Units)

MLB Best Bets

Detroit Tigers +105, *2 Units to win 2.1*

The Pirates have really struggled against lefties in the early going and they going to see a much improved Matt Boyd tonight. Boyd’s velocity was up in spring training and it has translated into more strikeouts. Musgrove is also pitching well but he is more of a pitch to contact type of pitcher which could give the pesky Tigers bats some chances to make things happen.

Colorado Rockies +105, *2 Units to win 2.1*

Caught this one way too late, the line steamed as I was writing this but Jon Gray seems undervalued against the Padre youngster. Gray has had his struggles for sure but he will see a right-handed heavy Padre lineup in a larger Padres stadium. The Rockies appear to be waking up at least slightly, too bad we missed all the real value here in the number but this isn’t chasing steam, just a spot I like.