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Use the units to determine both a confidence meter and a rubric on how much to wager. It is a good idea to keep units a metric to help you manage your bankroll and understand how much you’re up or down. You determine what the value of each unit is but it is important to try you’re best to stay consistent with the value of the unit. Going up or down based off of your available bankroll is fine but stay as disciplined as you can, bankroll management is just as important if not more the actual handicapping of games.
Keep in mind that there is juice to pay to the books so if a line is -110 that would mean you would need to risk 1.1 units to win 1.
For example: If one unit = $100, you would need to risk $110 to win $100 on a -110 bet.
My Notes: Been a while, been busy with MLB DFS content but there are some opportunities tonight so lets get it.
2019 MLB Record YTD: 22-13 (+19.8 Units)
MLB Best Bets
St. Louis Cardinals -120, *2.4 Units to win 2*
Folty hasn’t looked right since returning from his injury. He wasn’t good in the minors for his rehab starts and his velocity is down 2MPH from last year which is usually a bad sign for a pitcher. Interestingly enough Folty is struggling more with righties this season and the Cardinals have a lot of those. The Braves may put up a fight against Flaherty who struggles with left handed hitters but the Braves bullpen is terrible so I expect the Cardinals offense to win out.
Kansas City Royals -130, *2.6 Units to win 2*
Shelby Miller throws a whole lot of below average fastballs and the Royals offense has been pretty good this year against below average right-handed pitchers. Duffy has actually looked pretty good so far and while the Rangers have massive power, they have a lot of lefties which should play into Duffy’s favor. Hunter Pence is pretty hot so we have to dodge some bullets here but the Royals should be able to beat up of Miller.
Milwaukee Brewers -110, *2.2 Units to win 2*
Eickhoff has looked good but he shows some series warning signs against lefties. Eickhoff has a 27% strikeout rate in 2019 but against lefties that number drops to 20%. The Brewers have a lot of left-handed power and Eickhoff has a 35% hard contact rate and a 70% fly-ball rate against lefties. If this game comes down to the bullpens the Brewers have the edge there.