CK013’s MLB Best Bets (FREE) – 5/20/19


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Use the units to determine both a confidence meter and a rubric on how much to wager. It is a good idea to keep units a metric to help you manage your bankroll and understand how much you’re up or down. You determine what the value of each unit is but it is important to try you’re best to stay consistent with the value of the unit. Going up or down based off of your available bankroll is fine but stay as disciplined as you can, bankroll management is just as important if not more the actual handicapping of games.

Keep in mind that there is juice to pay to the books so if a line is -110 that would mean you would need to risk 1.1 units to win 1.

For example: If one unit = $100, you would need to risk $110 to win $100 on a -110 bet.

My Notes: Lost last night but 4-1 over the last five ain’t bad. Lets get back to it.

2019 MLB Record YTD: 27-14 (+27.8 Units)

MLB Best Bets

Los Angeles Angels -120, *2.4 Units to win 2*

Jake Odorizzi has regression coming. He is giving up a ton of fly-balls along with a 38% hard contact rate yet his HR/FB ration is only 6.7% and his BaBIP is .244. Odorizzi’s ERA is an impressive 2.63 but his xFIP is 4.46. This is a bet against Odorizzi.