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NBA DFS is among us in preseason form. In NBA DFS understanding minutes are extremely important and that is especially the case in the preseason. Figuring out which coaches are likely to play their guys will provide a good baseline and the only way to really know is to dig into it. To score fantasy points you need to be on the court that is the bottom line. Once you understand who’s going to play then you can try to determine match-up and other determinants.
Some NBA Coaches can be tough to predict while others are fairly easy though in the preseason it seems as though most are fairly tough and in some cases are unsure of how much they will end up letting their guys play. Information is key in NBA Preseason DFS.
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Pretty solid day yesterday it was good to see the NBA Slack chat bumpin’ with some screenshots. Much smaller slate today and all the games are late. This will be the last day that the preseason article is free. We will be opening our day passes tomorrow for $2.49, though it is recommended that you take advantage of the season pass sale that ends on the 15th of October. If you’re looking for all sports that we all we have plenty of options. Get in the slack with a monthly pass or higher, lets go!
Phoenix Suns vs Sacramento Kings
The Suns said they were going to play their starters 14-18 minutes but ended up playing most of them 20-21. DeAndre Ayton was the main stand out in the first game scoring 18 points with 13 boards. Ricky Rubio took 13 shots while only hitting five of them, he had three rebounds, five assists and steal to go along with his 11 points, as expected Rubio and Ayton seem to be a solid combo. Devin Booker interestingly enough only took eight shots but made half of them scoring 15 points going 6/7 from the free-throw line. Booker did have three boards and five assists so he was still active. Dario Saric grabbed seven rebounds in 17 minutes but shot 1-5 from the court.
In the last game Aaron Baynes, Mikal Bridges and Kelly Oubre all missed and all three are questionable tonight. Frank Kaminsky was questionable but played 23 minutes scoring 14 points and grabbing four rebounds. Cheick Diallo also benefited from the Baynes injury getting 22 minutes though he only took two shots while grabbing nine boards, he also racked up four personal fouls. That injury news will be pretty important for those two so be sure to pay attention to news.
With Bridges and Oubre out rookie Cameron Johnson played a team high 26 minutes though he only took seven shots (making three), had one rebound and a steal. If the forwards miss again the minutes should be there it’s just a matter of low usage.Tyler Johnson only got 14 minutes while rookie point guard Ty Jerome played 22 while scoring 12 points on 6/7 shooting and four assists. Jerome appears to be a leading candidate for the back-up point guard role and should get similar run again though the shooting efficiency shouldn’t be relied on.
Devin Booker, DeAndre Ayton, Ricky Rubio
Other Options: Cameron Johnson (if Bridges and Oubre are out), Frank Kaminsky (If Baynes is out), Cheick Diallo (if Baynes is out)
The Kings played their first two preseason games in India against the Pacers. The first game went to overtime and the Kings allowed their guys some big minutes. Buddy Hield played 31, Harrison Barnes played 34, De’Aaron Fox played 33 and Marvin Bagley played 29 while Bogdan Bogdanovic and Trevor Ariza played 28 off the bench. On the back-end of the back-to-back we saw a reduction in minutes but not as strong as you’d think with Hield playing 27, Bagley 25, and Fox 25 although Barnes did drop to 16, Bogdan dropped to 21 and Ariza didn’t play. The Kings haven’t mentioned their plans of minutes tonight and reports indicate that a few players have fallen ill since the India trip. Did the Kings do this for India or do they plan on playing their guys in the preseason?
Buddy Hield took the most shot attempts of the starters in both games though Fox wasn’t far behind and had eight assists in the first game with six assists in the second. Marvin Bagley didn’t grab as many boards as you’d expect though the Pacers were one of the better rebounding teams in the league last year. The minutes were promising and while he didn’t shoot efficiently in either game, he did take 12 shots in each. Bogdan Bogdanovic was effective off the bench in the first game but was practically invisible in the second, he is assumed to be the second unit usage guy. With Corey Joseph ruled out due to a hip injury, Bogdan should handle the ball more for that second unit.
Joseph’s absence also leaves the door open for Yogi Ferrell who got three minutes in the first game with Joseph and 22 in the second without him. If the Kings plan on playing their main players more again he is the least likely to see minutes. Aside from Bogdan the second unit players most likely to see minutes should be Trevor Ariza, Nemanja Bjelica and Richaun Holmes. Holmes has the most appeal in GPPs as he is cheap with a high point per minute projection, Dwayne Dedmon is supposedly sick and while he is expected to play he only played 17 minutes in game one and 20 in game two. Harry Giles is also ruled out so if Dedmon were to get ruled out then increase your Bagley and Holmes shares.
De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley, Buddy Hield
Other Options: Dwayne Dedmon, Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes
Denver Nuggets vs Los Angeles Clippers
The main Nuggets got 16-22 minutes in a game without Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets are limited on preseason games this year with only four and they are thought to have wanted Jokic in at least two so we have to see if they plan on playing him or not. If he’s out Mason Plumlee would start in a pretty solid match-up against the likes of Zubac and Harrell. If Jokic is in then he gets that same smash spot but there are limitation concerns.
If Jokic were to miss again Jamal Murray and Paul Millsap would be expected to benefit from increased usage. Jamal Murray took 10 shots which was the most by any starter but he only made three. Assuming Patrick Beverely plays (there are rumors that he may sit) Murray could have his hands full tonight. Paul Millsap appears to have a better match-up than Murray as Millsap is 247 points and has at least 20 pounds on any power forward the Clippers have. If Beverly is out that would be a bump for Murray.
Michael Porter Jr. played 16 minutes scoring nine points and grabbed three boards, he does seem like someone who will need more minutes to really produce good fantasy returns. Jerami Grant, Malik Beasley and Monte Morris were the second unit guys who played the most though 18-20 was really all they got as well. The usage for those three guys were pretty solid off the bench, just a minutes thing.
Nikola Jokic (if he plays), Mason Plumlee (if Jokic is out)
Other Options: Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray, Jerami Grant, Monte Morris
We already know that Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Rodney McGruder are out and there are whispers that Patrick Beverly could sit. If Beverly sits Landry Shamet could start at point guard instead of shooting guard which could increase his usage. Lou Williams would also be expected to benefit though the Clippers do have a couple other guards they can play if they feel it’s unnecessary to over play their guys (Lou Williams only played 10 minutes in their last game while Beverly only played 12).
Montrezl Harrell played 27 minutes in that exhibition, he continues to be a point per minute beast off the bench and the main play from this team. Ivica Zubac played 18 minutes, he’s can be inconsistent at times but he does have upside making him a GPP option.
Terrance Mann played 25 minutes grabbing eight boards, dishing four assists and scoring nine points. The Clippers seen to like this kid and may want to get another look with a thin forward position.
Montrezl Harrell, Terrance Mann
Other Options: Lou Williams, Landry Shamet, Ivica Zubac
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Golden State Warriors
The Wolves were expected to push their starters but that didn’t happen as no starter played more than 19 minutes. Jarrett Culver did get 24 minutes as expected but didn’t do a ton with those minutes. Shabazz Napier scored seven points with seven assists in the 13 minutes he got making him an interesting option if he were to get a bit more tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns was the stud as expected scoring 19 points with 10 rebounds, five assists, a block and three steals in his 19 minutes. He remains the top play of the team with the Warriors looking pretty small. Andrew Wiggins drew five fouls in 11 minutes, needless to say he seemed pretty rusty. Assuming the Wolves did actually play their guys minutes Jeff Teague would be a solid pairing with KAT but that is going to be a guess unless we get clarification.
Other Options: Jeff Teague, Jarrett Culver, Shabazz Napier, Andrew Wiggins
The Warriors have a new look this year without Kevin Durant and for now without Klay Thompson. The Warriors starters got 17-22 minutes in the first game but they have a lot of new pieces this year, they haven’t played since Saturday and they won’t play again until Monday so this would be a good time for them to get their guys some run.
Steph Curry is the clear top option on this team and possibly on this slate. Even in 18 minutes Curry chucked up 11 shots (five of them for three). If you believe he gets anything more than 20 it’s hard to imagine him now being one of the better raw point scorers. Draymond Green only played 17 minutes and went 0/3 from the field but he did rack up seven rebounds, four assists and a steal. D’Angelo Russell was unimpressive with a 2/9 outing.
Omari Spellman played 22 which was the most of any starter and he did grab nine rebounds despite shooting 2/9 from the field. Alfonso McKinnie got 21 minutes and grabbed six boards with seven points on 3/8 shooting. Jordan Poole was impressive in his 23 minutes taking 11 shots and scoring 17 points though he didn’t have many peripheral stats to go with it. Kevin Looney and Alec Burks are out so Marquese Chriss may continue to be worked in a bit especially if anyone gets into foul trouble covering KAT.