(FREE) CK013’s KBO DFS Breakdown – 6/3/20

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Welcome to baseball in 2020 at least for now. I for one am thrilled to have a traditional sport back. This is nothing against E-Sports which I have developed a pretty strong appreciation for during this time, but a sport that I have known since I was a child is certainly more exciting to me than one that I didn’t know existed until a couple of years ago especially when I am plan on investing my money into it.

Getting into KBO DFS statistically it does seem like the homers and strikeouts are down compared to the MLB numbers we are used to however the scoring of runs wasn’t as down as you’d think. Offenses do seem to produce it just seems to be at a slower rate than we are accustomed to in the MLB which makes sense as we did notice the strikeouts are also down.

Strategically the same DFS rules apply in finding lower owned plays in GPPs and playing the safer ones in cash. We don’t have the advanced analytics we have grown to love in the MLB so we are really back to basics here in terms of interpreting the stats. This is baseball and correlation could become even more important with small ball leading the way. As usual I will be applying a 5 man stack in every team.

NOTE: Be sure to check out our cheatsheet and projections, and always check back on all content after lineups are released. Supposedly they are released an hour before game-time so we will find out. In the meantime we are covering DraftKings, we will announce if we are able to add content for FanDuel.

Below you will find the pitchers and stacks that stood out to me the most. Without lineups it can be tough to get specific but I will highlight the hitters from stacks to start the stack around.

NOTE: All Lineups are projected lineups only, they are not confirmed. Projections and cheatsheets will be updated with confirmed lineups as they are released.

Pitchers

Hyun Jong Yang

Yang was one of the top pitchers in the KBO last season both from a real baseball and fantasy perspective but this season his numbers aren’t really close. His FIP is almost doubled, his strikeout rate is down from 22.3% to 16.07%, his K/BB ratio is down from 4.66 to 2.25 and his HR% is up from 0.82% to 2.68%. He draws a friendlier match-up here against the Giants so that could certainly help and despite the numbers not looking as pretty, he did post a 22.7 (DKP) against Doosan and a 24.5 (DKP) against SK before getting slammed for six earned runs by the KT Wiz. I am not going to be afraid to play him at high exposures but we do have a couple of interesting options today.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% K/BB HR%
1.77 Hyun Jong Yang 17.55 P 9,900 KIA LOT 2.29 2.32 -0.03 1.072 22.30% 4.66 0.82%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% K/BB HR%
1.77 Hyun Jong Yang 20.73 11.38 17.55 P 9,900 KIA LOT 4.85 4.14 0.71 1.423 16.07% 2.25 2.68%

Warwick Saupold

Warwick has the skills of a good KBO domestic pitcher. He isn’t a big strikeout guy but he seems comfortable pitching to contact and for the most part he does a pretty good job. His strikeouts are down from last year which isn’t great because his strikeout rate wasn’t pretty to begin with and the match-up against Kiwoom is scary especially due to the fact that they have been heating up. Still Saupold is one of the top pitchers on the slate, though I will use him more as a lower-exposure pivot assuming he’s lower owned than Kelly and Yang. Not a ton of interest here but he’s in the pool.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% K/BB HR%
1.65 Warwick Saupold 15.72 P 9,500 HAN KIW 3.51 3.20 0.31 1.274 16.67% 2.18 0.99%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% K/BB HR%
1.65 Warwick Saupold 14.45 15.90 15.72 P 9,500 HAN KIW 2.65 3.19 -0.54 1.147 12.41% 2.13 0.73%

Casey Kelly 

Despite an ERA of 4.05, the rest of Kelly’s numbers look even better than last year. Kelly’s FIP is down to 2.00, his strikeout rate is up to 22.73% and his K/BB ratio is up to 3.33 from 2.21. Kelly also gets a favorable match-up against Samsung at home in a park that has graded out as a pitcher friendly park thus far both in HRs per game and runs per game. Hard to argue against Kelly here aside from what his ownership should look like. Kelly seems like the top option when weighing all factors.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% K/BB HR%
1.86 Casey Kelly 16.37 P 8,800 LG SAM 2.55 3.16 -0.61 1.137 16.87% 2.21 0.94%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% K/BB HR%
1.86 Casey Kelly 16.53 14.70 16.37 P 8,800 LG SAM 4.05 2.00 2.05 1.400 22.73% 3.33 0.00%

Adrian Sampson 

Sampson has only had one start in the KBO and he was limited to 59 pitches. While he currently has a 5.40 ERA, he has a 2.20 FIP, a 21.43% strikeout rate and a K/BB ratio of 3. With that said it’s way too early to judge him yet and we should assume he is still on some sort of limit but perhaps it’s 70-80 tonight, at his price on DraftKings he could actually be a decent play but lacks ceiling and we have a couple guys that have big ones.

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% K/BB HR%
1.16 Adrian Sampson 7.69 7.69 9.49 P 8,200 LOT KIA 5.40 2.20 3.20 1.200 21.43% 3.00 0.00%

Geon Wook Lee

Lee has pitched in three games in 2020 only starting one, before that we hadn’t seen him in the KBO since 2017. Basically we know nothing about him but what we have seen through those three appearances was pretty good. Again it’s too small of a sample to make a real judgement but in GPPs he’s at least showing some sort of capability for upside at a low price. He has a tough match-up with the Dinos but they strikeout and so far Lee has a 25% strikeout rate and a K/BB ratio o 4. His one start was against Doosan and he went 5 1/3 innings giving up 1 earned run on three hits and a walk, and he struck out three hitters on 73 pitches. Perhaps he gets a bit of a raise in pitch count today, and again the Dinos strikeout more than Doosan.

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% K/BB HR%
1.99 Geon Wook Lee 11.50 11.50 12.52 P 6,300 SK NCD 1.04 1.95 -0.91 0.690 25.00% 4.00 0.00%

Young Gun Jo

The sickest name in baseball here or at least in the KBO. We don’t know anything about this dude. He pitched one time in the KBO last year and was shelled by the Dinos. He pitched one inning of relief this year and walked one person without giving up any hits or earned runs. He only threw 14 pitches so we have to wonder how long he can go. Perhaps he’s an opener or perhaps they let him grab a few innings, either way he’s very cheap and he has the one of the best match-ups on the board against Hanwha. I’ll keep in the pool for the sake of punting if needed but not a main play for me.

Top Stack(s)

KT Wiz

The Wiz are one of the top offenses in the league and they face Young Chan Lee from the Doosan Bears who has a 5.88 FIP, a 1.754 WHIP, an 11.88% strikeout rate and a 4.95% HR% in 2020. The Wiz are home in their park which is currently ranked first in runs per game. Not only has Lee been terrible but the Doosan bullpen is ranked 9th in ERA so far this season. KT has looked strong and expect it to continue as this game has a 13 run total.

Core Pieces: Mel Rojas Jr., Jeong Dae Bae, Jae Gyun Hwang
wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
KTW B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Woo Jun Sim 1 0.300 0.300 0.061 0.040 3 0 0.69% 0.00% 24 6 15.70% 17.43% 5.5
Jeong Dae Bae 2 0.249 0.420 0.054 0.193 0 1 0.00% 1.10% 0 2 27.38% 18.68% 5.5
Yong Ho Jo 3 0.324 0.442 0.064 0.068 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 3 1 13.27% 8.33% 5.5
Mel Rojas Jr. 4 0.398 0.493 0.207 0.280 24 6 4.15% 5.83% 4 0 20.76% 22.33% 5.5
Jae Gyun Hwang 5 0.362 0.335 0.183 0.128 20 1 3.94% 1.18% 10 2 14.00% 18.82% 5.5
Kyung Soo Park 6 0.319 0.370 0.128 0.169 10 3 2.04% 3.45% 0 0 20.82% 21.84% 5.5
Sang Chul Moon 7 0.260 0.371 0.117 0.150 2 1 2.94% 5.00% 2 0 38.24% 20.00% 5.5
Sung Woo Jang 8 0.300 0.358 0.077 0.176 7 3 1.69% 3.85% 0 0 20.82% 8.97% 5.5
Min Hyeok Kim 9 0.295 0.274 0.026 0.180 0 2 0.00% 2.99% 22 0 11.71% 10.45% 5.5

Doosan Bears

The Bears took full advantage of playing on the road yesterday and pummeled Despaigne. Doosan’s park is grading out so far as one of the best pitching parks in the game so we will want to take advantage when they are on the road in hitter friendly parks. Today they face Hyeong Jun So who has a 4.75 FIP, a 1.662 WHIP, a 6.67% strikeout rate and a 3% HR% in 2020. The Bears are one of the top offenses in the league and not only is this a park boost but the KT Wiz are the only team with a worse bullpen ERA than the Bears. Again this game has a 13 run total and the Bears are favored here.

Core Pieces: Jose Fernandez, Jae Hwan Choi, Jae Hwan Kim
wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
DOO B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Soo Bin Jung 1 0.311 0.278 0.066 0.058 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 26 2 11.70% 12.77% 6.5
Jose Fernandez 2 0.394 0.506 0.138 0.223 15 4 2.33% 3.77% 1 0 8.37% 7.55% 6.5
Jae Il Oh 3 0.377 0.429 0.201 0.250 21 3 3.97% 4.29% 2 0 18.71% 27.14% 6.5
Jae Hwan Kim 4 0.353 0.366 0.152 0.205 15 4 2.61% 4.12% 3 0 19.69% 30.93% 6.5
Joo Hwan Choi 5 0.308 0.358 0.088 0.263 4 5 1.23% 5.81% 0 0 10.77% 10.47% 6.5
Jae Ho Kim 6 0.336 0.383 0.090 0.081 4 0 0.85% 0.00% 3 1 12.34% 8.33% 6.5
Se Hyuk Park 7 0.326 0.312 0.111 0.000 4 0 0.79% 0.00% 8 0 13.47% 7.14% 6.5
Kyoung Min Hur 8 0.323 0.349 0.082 0.129 4 2 0.74% 2.15% 11 3 6.67% 5.38% 6.5
Kun Woo Park 9 0.377 0.286 0.146 0.107 10 1 1.86% 1.04% 12 0 10.61% 11.46% 6.5

SK Wyverns

The Wyverns do appear to be heating up after a horrid start to the season. Today they face Sung Young Choi of the NC Dinos who has a 2.70 ERA but a 7.62 FIP, a 6% strikeout rate and a 6.67% HR% in the early going. The Dinos have one of the best rated parks for HRs at least so far in 2020 and SK should come in fairly low-owned as they have every night. The Dinos bullpen hasn’t been as bad as others but they were expected to have a bottom half bullpen going into the season.

Core Pieces: Jamie Romak, Jeong Choi, Soo Kwang Noh
wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
SK B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Kang Min Kim 1 0.311 0.290 0.100 0.119 8 1 1.74% 2.13% 15 2 22.39% 27.66% 4.5
Eui Yoon Jeong 2 0.348 0.271 0.166 0.032 13 0 3.11% 0.00% 0 0 14.35% 13.04% 4.5
Jeong Choi 3 0.404 0.347 0.227 0.151 29 2 4.79% 2.11% 3 2 15.18% 15.79% 4.5
Jamie Romak 4 0.384 0.340 0.232 0.133 29 2 4.92% 2.06% 6 0 19.86% 20.62% 4.5
Tae Hyeok Nam 5 0.323 0.000 0 0.00% 0 24.14% 4.5
Joon Woo Choi 6 0.251 0.176 0.061 0.000 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 0 0 8.33% 0.00% 4.5
Hong Gu Lee 7 0.236 0.100 1 2.22% 0 31.11% 4.5
Hyun Jung 8 0.271 0.104 1 1.85% 0 25.93% 4.5
Soo Kwang Noh 9 0.295 0.424 0.062 0.184 2 1 0.45% 1.82% 27 2 15.28% 14.55% 4.5

LG Twins

The Twins currently have the highest team ISO at .194. Their park grades out as a pitcher friendly park so far but perhaps the power can negate the park. The Twins will face Yoon Dong Heo of the Lions who we don’t have much of a sample on. Heo has a 0 ERA but a 5.70 FIP with a 4.17% strikeout rate. LG is certainly a big test for the youngster and again they have the best power numbers to start to season.

Core Pieces: Roberto Ramos, Eun Sung Chae,  Hyun Soo Kim
wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
LG B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Chun Woong Lee 1 0.339 0.322 0.066 0.094 2 1 0.33% 1.05% 21 5 13.38% 14.74% 4.5
Hyun Soo Kim 2 0.360 0.452 0.133 0.185 11 1 1.85% 0.99% 3 0 8.74% 6.93% 4.5
Eun Sung Chae 3 0.349 0.378 0.119 0.198 12 4 2.33% 4.08% 2 0 13.04% 18.37% 4.5
Roberto Ramos 4 0.537 0.438 10 10.99% 0 19.78% 4.5
Min Sung Kim 5 0.310 0.111 8 2.00% 2 18.70% 4.5
Keun Woo Jeong 6 0.310 0.276 0.076 0.073 3 1 0.98% 1.56% 8 3 14.10% 10.94% 4.5
Ju Hyeon Jung 7 0.270 0.366 0.077 0.229 2 2 0.47% 5.00% 15 1 21.41% 27.50% 4.5
Kang Nam Yoo 8 0.340 0.307 0.167 0.125 16 2 3.42% 2.74% 0 1 17.52% 19.18% 4.5
Ji Hwan Oh 9 0.322 0.312 0.127 0.213 9 3 1.65% 3.53% 27 2 20.66% 28.24% 4.5