(FREE) CK013’s KBO DFS DraftKings Breakdown – 5/22/20

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Welcome to baseball in 2020 at least for now. I for one am thrilled to have a traditional sport back. This is nothing against E-Sports which I have developed a pretty strong appreciation for during this time, but a sport that I have known since I was a child is certainly more exciting to me than one that I didn’t know existed until a couple of years ago especially when I am plan on investing my money into it.

Getting into KBO DFS statistically it does seem like the homers and strikeouts are down compared to the MLB numbers we are used to however the scoring of runs wasn’t as down as you’d think. Offenses do seem to produce it just seems to be at a slower rate than we are accustomed to in the MLB which makes sense as we did notice the strikeouts are also down.

Strategically the same DFS rules apply in finding lower owned plays in GPPs and playing the safer ones in cash. We don’t have the advanced analytics we have grown to love in the MLB so we are really back to basics here in terms of interpreting the stats. This is baseball and correlation could become even more important with small ball leading the way. As usual I will be applying a 5 man stack in every team.

NOTE: Be sure to check out our cheatsheet and projections, and always check back on all content after lineups are released. Supposedly they are released an hour before game-time so we will find out. In the meantime we are covering DraftKings, we will announce if we are able to add content for FanDuel.

Below you will find the pitchers and stacks that stood out to me the most. Without lineups it can be tough to get specific but I will highlight the hitters from stacks to start the stack around.

NOTE: All Lineups are projected lineups only, they are not confirmed. Projections and cheatsheets will be updated with confirmed lineups as they are released.

WEATHER UPDATE: Looks like there is some rain potential for two games. CLICK HERE for full forecast by DFS Meteorologist Kevin Roth.

Pitchers

Hyun Jong Yang

Yang had a strong 2019 finishing with a 2.32 FIP, a 1.072 WHIP, a 0.82% HR% and a 22.3% strikeout rate. So far in 2020 he hasn’t exactly looked the same, his FIP is up to 5.23, his WHIP 1.267, his HR% is way up at 4.84% and his strikeouts are down to 17.74%. Despite the rocky numbers through his first three starts of the season he has posted respectable fantasy scores in two of his three starts one of which against the mighty Doosan Bears offense. Today he faces a SK team that has gotten off to a horrid 2-11 start and have been one of the better teams to target pitchers with (aside from last night). For what it’s worth Yang dominated SK in three starts posting a 22.15 (DKP), a 27.35 (DKP) and a 31.35 (DKP). This means nothing if he’s not the same pitcher as last year but it’s way too early to make that call so I plan on rolling with him quite a bit here.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
2.13 Hyun Jong Yang 19.20 P 9,000 KIA SK 2.29 2.32 -0.03 1.072 22.30% 0.82%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
2.13 Hyun Jong Yang 20.73 12.32 19.20 P 9,000 KIA SK 4.80 5.23 -0.43333 1.267 17.74% 4.84%

Warwick Saupold

The former Detroit Tiger seems to be in a league that suits his style. In 2019 Saupold had a respectable 3.20 FIP, a 1.274 WHIP, a 0.99% HR% and he did it all with only a 16.67% strikeout rate. So far in 2020 his strikeout rate is down to 12.94% yet but other numbers are even stronger with an FIP at 2.78, a WHIP at 0.818 and HR% of 0. He will have his hands full today against the first place NC Dinos. The Dinos have been striking out a lot more this season but Saupold just doesn’t miss many bats. Hard for me to pay this price for a pitcher that doesn’t strike hitters out against a top offense.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.84 Warwick Saupold 15.98 P 8,700 HAN NCD 3.51 3.20 0.31 1.274 16.67% 0.99%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.84 Warwick Saupold 14.45 20.37 15.98 P 8,700 HAN NCD 1.64 2.78 -1.14182 0.818 12.94% 0.00%

Jake Brigham

Brigham was a top arm last year in the KBO. He finished 2019 with a 2.97 FIP, a 1.225 WHIP, a 0.75% HR% and a 19.43% strikeout rate. So far in 2020 we’ve had a different picture painted, his FIP is up to 5.02, his WHIP is at 1.462 and his HR% is up to 3.64%. One positive is his strikeout rate is at 20% and while that’s barely an improvement it’s good to see he still has some remanence of strikeout upside. Brigham has faced the Kia Tigers and the Hanwha Eages and his pitch counts were held in check at 62 and 74 pitches. Expect the Heroes to extend that leash a bit here, Brigham was one of the domestic players that was quarantined for two weeks after arriving in South Korea recently. I fully expect him to bounce back at some point and it could be today against the Lotte Giants.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.34 Jake Brigham 11.22 P 8,400 KIW LOT 2.96 2.97 -0.01 1.225 19.43% 0.75%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.34 Jake Brigham 15.74 8.95 11.22 P 8,400 KIW LOT 4.15 5.02 -0.87308 1.462 20.00% 3.64%

Odrisamer Despaigne

Despaigne has been awesome in his early KBO career. He currently has a 1.51 FIP, a 1.00 WHIP, a 0% HR% and a 26.47% strikeout rate. He will have a tough test against the LG Twins who busted as chalk last night, but we have seen the twins strikeout against the right pitcher and he feels like the right pitcher based off what we have seen. Not going to overthink this one, I am going to be getting my fair share of Despaigne exposure.

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
2.40 Odrisamer Despaigne 19.35 19.35 19.92 P 8,300 KTW LG 2.65 1.51 1.13824 1.000 26.47% 0.00%

Young Chan Lee

Lee was pretty mediocre last year finishing with a 4.07 FIP, a 1.436 WHIP, a 2.3% HR% and a 15.67% strikeout rate. So far in 2020 he has been a gas can surrendering six earned runs against the KT Wiz in his first start and eight earned runs in his second start against the Kia Tigers. His 2020 numbers look pretty awful with a 6.50 FIP, a 1.700 WHIP, a 14.89% strikeout rate and a 6.38% HR%. The one bright spot here is that he is playing the Samsung Lions and as usual he is backed by one of the top offenses in the game. Perhaps he will turn it around but it’s hard for me to depend on pitchers with strikeout rates this low especially when we have other options, still a match-up against Samsung always warrants attention.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
0.73 Yong Chan Lee 5.98 P 8,200 DOO SAM 4.07 4.07 0.00 1.436 15.67% 2.30%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
0.73 Yong Chan Lee 11.44 -0.55 5.98 P 8,200 DOO SAM 12.60 6.50 6.10000 1.700 14.89% 6.38%

Casey Kelly

Casey Kelly finished 2019 with a 3.16 FIP, a 1.137 FIP, a 0.94% HR% and a 16.87% strikeout rate. Obviously the strikeouts are just ok but the other numbers were really solid. So far in 2020 Kelly’s 2.35 FIP is solid but it’s hiding behind a 5.63 ERA after some bad luck. He still isn’t getting beat by homers and his strikeouts are pretty much the same at 16%, we should expect that 1.625 WHIP to come down once his luck turns around. As far Kelly himself goes I have no problems trusting that he will resume closer to his averages from last year what as me hesitant is his match-up against the KT Wiz who have proven to be a tough offense. I will keep Kelly in the pool looking for progression but again this is a tough match-up.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.39 Casey Kelly 10.83 P 7,800 LG KTW 2.55 3.16 -0.61 1.137 16.87% 0.94%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.39 Casey Kelly 16.53 8.40 10.83 P 7,800 LG KTW 5.63 2.35 3.28000 1.625 16.22% 0.00%

Young Gyu Kim

Kim appeared in 30 games last season but only started 10 of them. He finished 2019 with a 4.76 FIP, a 1.704 WHIP, a 2.28% HR% and a 14.98% strikeout rate. He’s had two starts in 2020 so far and has shown a 5.01 FIP unsupportive of a 3.27 ERA, his WHIP is down at 1.090 but it appears as though luck could be playing a factor. His HR% is up at 7.14% which is crazy high but should come down and his strikeouts are at 21.43% which is great but looking at last year’s numbers I am not sure if he will sustain that. Kim is cheap and he has a match-up against the Hanwha Eagles who are pretty bad despite putting up big runs on KT last night. If you need to really get cheap he’s an option but I prefer going with stronger arms.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.80 Young Gyu Kim 9.92 P 5,500 NCD HAN 5.29 4.76 0.53 1.704 14.98% 2.28%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.80 Young Gyu Kim 3.90 14.08 9.92 P 5,500 NCD HAN 3.27 5.01 -1.73909 1.090 21.43% 7.14%

Top Stacks

Doosan Bears

The Doosan Bears will see Ben Livey who’s had a rough start to the 2020 season after a great showing a limited sample last season. The one positive stat for Lively is his strikeout rate which is over 20% but Doosan strikes out less than anyone in the league and Lively’s 7.43 FIP, 1.500 WHIP, and 7.69% HR rate are just too juicy looking not to attack fully.. Jose Fernandez has a .506 wOBA to start 2020 with a .226 ISO.

wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
Doo B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Kun Woo Park 1 0.377 0.305 0.146 0.130 10 1 1.86% 1.96% 12 0 10.61% 11.76% 5.5
Jose Fernandez 2 0.394 0.506 0.138 0.226 15 2 2.33% 3.51% 1 0 8.37% 10.53% 5.5
Joo Hwan Choi 3 0.308 0.432 0.088 0.361 4 3 1.23% 7.32% 0 0 10.77% 9.76% 5.5
Jae Hwan Kim 4 0.353 0.444 0.152 0.319 15 4 2.61% 7.14% 3 0 19.69% 28.57% 5.5
Jae Won Oh 5 0.250 0.508 0.107 0.353 3 2 1.47% 11.76% 6 1 24.51% 23.53% 5.5
Jae Ho Kim 6 0.336 0.402 0.090 0.044 4 0 0.85% 0.00% 3 1 12.34% 9.62% 5.5
Se Hyuk Park 7 0.326 0.362 0.111 0.000 4 0 0.79% 0.00% 8 0 13.47% 7.32% 5.5
Kyoung Min Hur 8 0.323 0.320 0.082 0.115 4 1 0.74% 1.85% 11 1 6.67% 3.70% 5.5
Soo Bin Jung 9 0.311 0.267 0.066 0.043 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 26 1 11.70% 10.42% 5.5

 

Kia Tigers

Bullpen game from the Wyverns, Joo Han Kim will get things going. The Tigers have warming up recently and bullpen game by Wyverns could extend their warmth into a full on offensive hot streak. Preston Tucker has been awesome so far and looks to stay hot tonight and feed his .584 wOBA and .429 ISO.

wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
KIA B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Chan Ho Park 1 0.277 0.304 0.058 0.039 2 0 0.37% 0.00% 39 2 15.34% 17.54% 5.5
Sun Bin Kim 2 0.327 0.378 0.079 0.082 3 0 0.67% 0.00% 5 0 5.82% 15.52% 5.5
Preston Tucker 3 0.377 0.584 0.168 0.429 9 5 2.26% 8.93% 0 0 11.03% 8.93% 5.5
Hyung Woo Choi 4 0.398 0.313 0.184 0.132 17 1 3.06% 1.69% 0 0 13.87% 16.95% 5.5
Ji Wan Na 5 0.301 0.431 0.178 0.293 6 3 3.92% 6.52% 0 0 24.18% 23.91% 5.5
Won Joon Choi 6 0.247 0.260 0.086 0.043 1 0 0.39% 0.00% 8 1 20.00% 16.07% 5.5
Dae In Hwang 7 0.262 0.973 0.080 0.800 0 1 0.00% 16.67% 0 0 28.57% 0.00% 5.5
Yoon Ho Hwang 8 0.317 0.262 0.098 0.067 1 0 0.77% 0.00% 2 1 9.23% 13.33% 5.5
Seung Taek Han 9 0.275 0.303 0.080 0.167 3 1 1.04% 3.57% 1 0 28.47% 21.43% 5.5
Pitcher Wins Losses Odds HR HR% ERA FIP WHIP K% Opp. K% Opp. Runs
Hyun Jong Yang 2 1 -211 3 4.84% 4.8 5.23 1.267 17.74% 22.80% 4.5

 

Kiwoom Heroes

The Heroes face Kyung Eun Noh who had a 4.29 FIP, a 1.54 WHIP, a 16.27% strikeout rate and a 3.29% HR% in 2019. So far in 2020 he’s managed a 3.28 FIP but his 1.636 WHIP, 14% strikeout rate and 2% HR% has me thinking we see the Heroes put a lot of balls in play. Our boy Ha Seong Kim may miss, he was pulled after an injury we will have to see the lineup. Byung Ho Park has a lot of positive regression coming you would think though the season is young, when it does hit it should be pretty hard.

KIW B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Keon Chang Seo 1 0.338 0.360 0.082 0.170 2 2 0.41% 3.28% 17 4 10.29% 8.20% 5.5
Ha Seong Kim 2 0.387 0.336 0.183 0.170 19 2 3.04% 3.17% 33 1 12.80% 14.29% 5.5
Jung Hoo Lee 3 0.370 0.496 0.120 0.333 6 3 0.95% 5.08% 13 1 6.35% 8.47% 5.5
ByungHo Park 4 0.416 0.286 0.280 0.140 33 2 6.20% 3.45% 0 0 21.99% 29.31% 5.5
Taek Keun Lee 5 0.363 0.266 0.127 0.118 4 0 1.12% 0.00% 1 0 12.36% 37.14% 5.5
Dong Won Park 6 0.359 0.399 0.148 0.316 10 3 2.77% 7.32% 1 0 15.51% 12.20% 5.5
Hye Sung Kim 7 0.309 0.262 0.086 0.000 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 20 1 21.96% 19.51% 5.5
Ji Young Lee 8 0.349 0.367 0.099 0.133 3 0 0.96% 0.00% 2 1 11.22% 12.50% 5.5
Joon Tae Park 9 0.215 0.339 0.073 0.034 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 1 0 31.91% 28.21% 5.5