(FREE) CK013’s KBO DFS DraftKings Breakdown – 5/24/20

0
221

Welcome to baseball in 2020 at least for now. I for one am thrilled to have a traditional sport back. This is nothing against E-Sports which I have developed a pretty strong appreciation for during this time, but a sport that I have known since I was a child is certainly more exciting to me than one that I didn’t know existed until a couple of years ago especially when I am plan on investing my money into it.

Getting into KBO DFS statistically it does seem like the homers and strikeouts are down compared to the MLB numbers we are used to however the scoring of runs wasn’t as down as you’d think. Offenses do seem to produce it just seems to be at a slower rate than we are accustomed to in the MLB which makes sense as we did notice the strikeouts are also down.

Strategically the same DFS rules apply in finding lower owned plays in GPPs and playing the safer ones in cash. We don’t have the advanced analytics we have grown to love in the MLB so we are really back to basics here in terms of interpreting the stats. This is baseball and correlation could become even more important with small ball leading the way. As usual I will be applying a 5 man stack in every team.

NOTE: Be sure to check out our cheatsheet and projections, and always check back on all content after lineups are released. Supposedly they are released an hour before game-time so we will find out. In the meantime we are covering DraftKings, we will announce if we are able to add content for FanDuel.

Below you will find the pitchers and stacks that stood out to me the most. Without lineups it can be tough to get specific but I will highlight the hitters from stacks to start the stack around.

NOTE: All Lineups are projected lineups only, they are not confirmed. Projections and cheatsheets will be updated with confirmed lineups as they are released.

Pitchers

Won Tae Choi

Choi has some solid 2019 numbers starting with his 2.96 FIP. He posted a 1.278 WHIP which isn’t bad considering his 15.77% strikeout rate and his HR% was a low 0.75% so he was comfortable pitching to contact and successful. So far this season he’s showing a 4.80 ERA but has a 2.70 FIP behind it. His WHIP is up at 1.533 but he still hasn’t been surrendering HRs and his strikeouts have been slightly up in 2020. The strikeouts are not something I am willing to bank on but there is a chance he BaBIPs his way into a successful start, unfortunately he was never erally a huge fantasy producer because of the lack of strikeouts. The Lotte Giants are expected to be one of the weaker offenses in the league despite a strong start but relying on BaBIP pitchers in DFS is never a great feeling.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.22 Won Tae Choi 11.56 P 9,500 KIW LOT 3.38 2.96 0.42 1.278 15.77% 0.75%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.22 Won Tae Choi 13.57 9.52 11.56 P 9,500 KIW LOT 4.80 2.70 2.10000 1.533 17.65% 0.00%

Mike Wright

Here is your chalk for the night. Mike Wright has posted solid fantasy scores all three of his starts in the KBO. Wright has a 1.69 ERA but an unsupportive 4.60 FIP has me just a little concerned. His strikeout rate of 22.86% is certainly attractive for this league but his 2.86 HR% indicates that when he isn’t missing bats he seems to be getting hit hard. As far as match-up Hanwha is one of the weaker offenses in the league and depending on the lineup they put out that can be pretty strikeout heavy. With the expected popularity of Wright on this slate he needs to be approached consciously as getting him right tonight could prove to be pretty big weather it be a low-owned Hanwha stack going off or Mike Wright completely dominating as chalk. The numbers indicate Wright may not be as good as he’s looked but is Hanwha the right team to bust his bubble?

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
2.28 Mike Wright 18.93 18.93 20.28 P 8,900 NCD HAN 1.69 4.60 -2.91000 1.313 22.86% 2.86%

Young Ha Lee

Similiarly to Choi, Lee was a solid contact pitcher last season posting a3.70 FIP, a 1.28 WHIP, a 0.72% HR% and just a 13.01% strikeout rate. In 2020 so far his FIP has rise to 4.16, his WHIP is up to 1.761 and his strikeout rate is 13.33%. Lee has a solid match-up against the Samsung Lions but again relying on BaBIP pitchers is always nerve racking for fantasy purposes. Lee’s price isn’t bad but the upside feels limited, sure he has a ceiling as BaBIP pitchers can have those games where their pitch counts stay low enough to go the distance but banking on that is never a fun sweat.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.36 Young Ha Lee 11.30 P 8,300 DOO SAM 3.64 3.70 -0.06 1.28 13.01% 0.72%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.36 Young Ha Lee 12.20 9.06 11.30 P 8,300 DOO SAM 4.11 4.16 -0.04960 1.761 13.33% 0.00%

William Cuevas

Cuevas was decent in 2019 but nothing special. He had a medicore FIP of 4.13, a solid WHIP at 1.174, a decent strikeout rate for this league at 17.76% and a 2.37% HR% which is above the league average. In 2020 Cuevas has been on pace with his 2019 numbers. His FIP is 4.15, his WHIP is 1.038, his HR% is 2.67% and his strikeouts are up a bit at 21.33%. Cuevas will have his hands full here against LG who has some power with guys like Roberto Ramos but we have seen LG get shut down including last night when they were chalk. Getting too heavy on Cuevas is a little uncomfortable but not having any could be just as uncomfortable as the pitching options are interesting to put it nicely.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.79 William Cuevas 13.96 P 7,800 KTW LG 3.62 4.13 -0.51 1.174 17.76% 2.37%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.79 William Cuevas 15.06 13.09 13.96 P 7,800 KTW LG 5.71 4.15 1.55737 1.038 21.33% 2.67%

Chan Gyu Lim

Lim appeared in 30 games last year but only started 13. He finished 2019 with a 4.74 FIP,a 1.466 WHIP, a 2.55% HR% and a 18.37% strikeout rate. So far in 2020 he has had two starts and he’s posted a much improved 2.27 FIP, a very low 1.083 WHIP, a massive 27.08% strikeout rate and a 2.08% HR%. It’s tough to assume that he is this much improved but has looked good from a fantasy perspective, even in a game where he gave up four earned to Samsung he struck out six in six innings giving him a solid fantasy score of 16 which at this price you would happily take. KT Wiz have some power and they are good offense so this won’t be easy but if Lim can keep racking up strikeouts he will be able to withstand some runs.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.69 Chan Gyu Lim 12.15 P 7,200 LG KTW 4.97 4.74 0.23 1.466 18.37% 2.55%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.69 Chan Gyu Lim 5.83 21.90 12.15 P 7,200 LG KTW 3.75 2.27 1.48333 1.083 27.08% 2.08%

Min Woo Lee

Lee finished 2019 with a 3.59 FIP behind a 5.43 ERA. He had a 1.63 WHIP, a 19.79% strikeout rate and a 1.41% HR% but he came out of the bullpen most of the year only starting six games out of the 32 games he appeared in. In 2020 so far through three starts he once again finds himself with an FIP (2.79) significantly better than his ERA (4.86). He has a 1.440 WHIP, a 17.81% strikeout rateĀ  and no homers. If Min’s strikeout numbers hold this is a reasonable price against an SK team that has just been struggling. SK certainly has some boppers such as Jamie Romak but Lee has potential to slide through here.

2019

Value Player Projection Position Price Team Opponent ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.37 Min Woo Lee 9.61 P 7,000 KIA SK 5.43 3.59 1.84 1.63 19.79% 1.41%

2020

Value Player Projection 19 Projection 20 Projection POS Price Team OPP ERA FIP Diff WHIP K% HR%
1.37 Min Woo Lee 3.77 12.88 9.61 P 7,000 KIA SK 4.86 2.79 2.06864 1.440 17.81% 0.00%

Top Stacks

Doosan Bears

The Bears will see David Buchanan who was lit up for 10 runs in his last start after dominating the Kiwoom Heroes just one start earlier. For the most park it seems like Buchanan is a bad pitcher with upside. Buchanan has always had a low strikeout rate and even after an eight strikeout performance against Kiwoom his 2020 strikeout rate is sitting at 14%. Buchanan also has a 5.13% HR% and a 5.93 FIP. Doosan should be able to wreck him and the weak bullpen behind him. Jose Fernandez continues to stay hot. Joo Hwan Choi has been hot and he continues to be cheap.

wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
Doo B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Kun Woo Park 1 0.377 0.310 0.146 0.113 10 1 1.86% 1.64% 12 0 10.61% 13.11% 6.5
Jose Fernandez 2 0.394 0.498 0.138 0.203 15 2 2.33% 3.03% 1 0 8.37% 10.61% 6.5
Joo Hwan Choi 3 0.308 0.369 0.088 0.302 4 3 1.23% 6.25% 0 0 10.77% 10.42% 6.5
Jae Hwan Kim 4 0.353 0.435 0.152 0.314 15 4 2.61% 6.67% 3 0 19.69% 28.33% 6.5
Jae Won Oh 5 0.250 0.453 0.107 0.261 3 2 1.47% 8.70% 6 1 24.51% 26.09% 6.5
Jae Ho Kim 6 0.336 0.402 0.090 0.077 4 0 0.85% 0.00% 3 1 12.34% 8.33% 6.5
Se Hyuk Park 7 0.326 0.362 0.111 0.000 4 0 0.79% 0.00% 8 0 13.47% 6.52% 6.5
Kyoung Min Hur 8 0.323 0.304 0.082 0.102 4 1 0.74% 1.61% 11 1 6.67% 4.84% 6.5
Soo Bin Jung 9 0.311 0.273 0.066 0.038 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 26 1 11.70% 8.93% 6.5

 

Kiwoom Heroes

The Heroes will face Jun Wun Seo who finished 2019 with a 4.72 FIP, a 1.598 WHIP, a 2.26% HR% and just a 13.54% strikeout rate. The Heroes seem to finally be waking up after a couple games of good hitting. Byung Ho Park hit two dingers yesterday after a rough start to the 2020 season. Ha Seong Kim returned to the lineup yesterday after missing a day with injury and he hit a dinger because he’s just really good. He’s the one that also had 33 stolen bases in 2019.

wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
KIW B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Keon Chang Seo 1 0.338 0.365 0.082 0.172 2 2 0.41% 3.03% 17 4 10.29% 7.58% 5.5
Ha Seong Kim 2 0.387 0.359 0.183 0.193 19 2 3.04% 2.94% 33 2 12.80% 13.24% 5.5
Jung Hoo Lee 3 0.370 0.491 0.120 0.321 6 3 0.95% 4.69% 13 1 6.35% 7.81% 5.5
ByungHo Park 4 0.416 0.300 0.280 0.132 33 2 6.20% 3.17% 0 0 21.99% 30.16% 5.5
Taek Keun Lee 5 0.363 0.266 0.127 0.118 4 0 1.12% 0.00% 1 0 12.36% 37.14% 5.5
Dong Won Park 6 0.359 0.423 0.148 0.302 10 3 2.77% 6.52% 1 0 15.51% 15.22% 5.5
Hye Sung Kim 7 0.309 0.249 0.086 0.000 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 20 2 21.96% 21.74% 5.5
Ji Young Lee 8 0.349 0.366 0.099 0.114 3 0 0.96% 0.00% 2 1 11.22% 13.51% 5.5
Joon Tae Park 9 0.215 0.307 0.073 0.030 0 0 0.00% 0.00% 1 0 31.91% 30.23% 5.5

Kia Tigers

The Tigers will see Ricardo Pinto who finished 2019 with a 7.69% strikeout rate. In 2020 so far it’s up to 10.26% which is obviously still shitty. The Tigers often go fairly low owned and that is the hope here today. Pinto has a 4.22 FIP and 1.851 WHIP, his pitch counts have been elevated due to an inability to strike hitters out. Preston Tucker is one of the top bats here for Kia. Chan Ho Park had 39 stolen bases last year and Hyung Woo Choi had 17 homers last year as the teams 2019 HR leader.

wOBA ISO HR HR% SB K%
KIA B/O 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 19 20 Runs
Chan Ho Park 1 0.277 0.304 0.058 0.049 2 0 0.37% 0.00% 39 2 15.34% 16.42% 4.5
Sun Bin Kim 2 0.327 0.370 0.079 0.071 3 0 0.67% 0.00% 5 0 5.82% 16.67% 4.5
Preston Tucker 3 0.377 0.556 0.168 0.393 9 5 2.26% 7.81% 0 0 11.03% 12.50% 4.5
Hyung Woo Choi 4 0.398 0.361 0.184 0.175 17 2 3.06% 2.99% 0 0 13.87% 14.93% 4.5
Ji Wan Na 5 0.301 0.432 0.178 0.277 6 3 3.92% 5.56% 0 0 24.18% 25.93% 4.5
Won Joon Choi 6 0.247 0.252 0.086 0.037 1 0 0.39% 0.00% 8 2 20.00% 14.06% 4.5
Dae In Hwang 7 0.262 0.544 0.080 0.308 0 1 0.00% 7.14% 0 0 28.57% 14.29% 4.5
Yoon Ho Hwang 8 0.317 0.262 0.098 0.067 1 0 0.77% 0.00% 2 1 9.23% 13.33% 4.5
Seung Taek Han 9 0.275 0.331 0.080 0.250 3 2 1.04% 6.25% 1 0 28.47% 21.88% 4.5