The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Anthony Rendon (DK – 3800 FD – 3400)
Matching up with Dallas Keuchel isn’t ideal, but Keuchel has been up and down since returning from injury. I refuse to ignore a dude with an EV14 of 92.22, .459 xOBA, and .396 ISO vs LHP. I’m not a fan of Washington overall right now, so I’ll stick to them as tournament-only plays until they prove otherwise. I do like the discount price on DK here.
Jake Marisnick (DK – 3600 FD – 2300)
With an elite EV14 of 89.33 and a matchup with Strasburg, I’ll stick with Big Jake as a GPP play. He crushed a ball 500 feet last nite, and he’s rocking a .310 ISO vs RHP. I believe in the numbers, and I love his FD price at basically minimum – great one-off tourney play.
Howie Kendrick (DK – 4200 FD – 3000)
Again, I don’t love attacking Keuchel, but at 3K on FD, Howie is the perfect tournament play. He’s hitting leadoff, and he’s been annihilating lefties – 87.47 EV14, .472 ISO, 55.36% HC14. The stats don’t lie – I’m always highly interested in a guy hitting leadoff for 3K with these kind of numbers. Sign me up!