The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Carlos Correa (DK – 4500 FD – 3400)
Facing Cole Hamels in Arlington tonight, the Astros should be popular tonight. Correa enters with an EV14 of 88.8 and a massive .440 xOBA vs LHP. His power has been down, but a .237 ISO is certainly respectable. Correa’s FD price seems too low in this matchup within a hitting environment.
Nick Castellanos (DK – 3400 FD – 3900)
Like we saw with Mariners’ hitters yesterday, Casty is insanely underpriced on DK against lefty Jason Vargas. His dual 3B/OF eligibility makes him a cash game staple – we know he crushes lefties, and the stats continue to backup this theory (87.82 EV14, .406 xOBA, .356 ISO). He’s a prime bomb candidate on this slate – cash game lock on DK.
Yulieski Gurriel (DK – 3900 FD – 3300)
Again, this is a game we need to target, and while Yuli has dipped in the second half, the stats we like to see in this article point his way. Despite his “struggles” an EV14 of 91.6 ranks elite on every slate, and his HC14 rate of 42.86% points to the simple fact – he continues to hit the ball hard vs LHP. A better launch angle tonight, and these numbers lead to a dong.