The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious by Jason Gaede
Carlos Correa (DK – 5300 FD – 4200)
With a season EV of 91.0 and EV14 of 88.8 vs LHP, I would be surprised if Correa doesn’t go deep tonight against Miranda, who allows 1.73 HR/9. Correa’s xOBA (.442) and ISO (.237) are Astro-nomical (get it?), and his overall WiseTake grade of 88 makes him a top play in all formats.
Andrew McCutchen (DK – 4500 FD – 4000)
After being left for dead early in the season, Cutch is back! Posting and EV14 of 89.89, xOBA .435, and ISO .406 vs LHP makes him a prime candidate for big time numbers against Brent Suter tonight. WiseTake’s 84 grade backs up all of these stats. He’s one of the best dude’s in MLB, so it’s a pleasure frequently rostering him again.
Nick Castellanos (DK – 3500 FD – 3100)
Casty came thru in a major way for my cash line Saturday, and he comes in with another solid price point and Jason Vargas. The All Star lefty has been tough, but he can’t strike anyone out, which makes him targetable. Casty has been crushing lefties to the tune of EV14 87.82, xOBA .407, and ISO .261. I’d love to see him in the 2-hole tonight, but either way it’s a great matchup.
Kendrys Morales (DK – 3300 FD – 3200)
Morales has given me headaches all season – I always seem to roster him on the wrong day. But he’s been mashing LHP lately – EV14 of 90.46 puts him on an elite level. His overall season avg EV 92.5 is one of the best in MLB. The matchup with E-Rod isn’t ideal, but I expect some rust in his first start back. I love Morales in tournaments at this price today – don’t be shocked if he goes yard at super low ownership.
Jordy Mercer (DK – 3600 FD – 2700)
Although he always hits low in the order, Mercer mashes LHP (EV14 – 88.64 with 80% Hard Contact rate). He’s not a guy who provides a great deal of power, but he crushed in this spot last time. He’s an excellent value play today on both sites. Dude is guaranteed to provide some fantasy points, with potential for another multi-hit game.