The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious by Jason Gaede
Justin Turner (DK – 4600 FD – 3800)
JT sports an EV14 of 88.16 with a HC14 % of 75.00. It’s pretty simple – along with several Dodger teammates, he’s destroying LHP. Big Red has an ISO .378 and xOBA .490 which makes him one of the top plays on this slate. WiseTake grades him at 93, which backs up the rest of these stats. Dodgers all day…
Logan Forsythe (DK 3600 FD – 3300)
Forsythe is one of my favorite plays on this slate – the numbers and price are right against Carlos Rodon. EV14 86.49 along with HC14 50% look nice with and xOBA .426. With an ISO over .200, Logan has exceptional power potential, and we love him here – overall 89 DK grade tonight. Great play in all formats.
Avisail Garcia (DK – 3600 FD – 3400)
Garcia won’t be on anyone’s radar tonight, but he should be. His EV14 of 91.82 and xOBA .358 say he’s a hot hitter, but he’s also having a career season. Maeda is junk, so I’m looking to Garcia for value in GPPs, especially on DK.
Mark Trumbo (DK – 4300 FD – 3300)
With all of his other numbers looking shoddy at best, I’m following EV only with this pick. Trumbo’s EV14 of 90.88 matches his season production (91.8), which shows a consistent hitter. Despite his other numbers being down, I’m expecting a Trum-bomb tonight against Martin Perez, who’s always a good target for right-handed hitters. As a side note, he’s 5-12 lifetime against Perez with a pair of jacks. I love his price on FD for cash or tournaments.
Zack Cozart (DK – 3500 FD – 2900)
A riskier play here, but Cozart crushes at home and has good career numbers against Greinke. His EV14 of 8845 is one of the highest on the slate, and he’s sporting a .230 ISO vs RHP. I’m saying GPP play only here, but we’re talking about major bomb potential at a cheap price and low ownership.