The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
The WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious by Slim Gaede
Kyle Schwarber (DK – 3700 FD – 2700)
Facing James Shields in Chi-town is the perfect spot for Schwarber, who’s EV14 of 88.58 is elite on this slate. He’s crushing RHP (HC14 50%, .363 xOBA, .256 ISO) and should be batting 5th for a squad projected at 5.2 runs. Shields allows a slate-high 2.31 HR/9, so the Cubs will be chalky. He provides an excellent chance to get a piece of those 5.2 runs at a discount price. I love him in all formats.
Christian Yelich (DK – 4000, FD – 3200)
It’s hard for me to ignore this man because he’s one of the most consistent line drive hitters in the game today. His season EV 91.4 and EV14 89.93 stand alone, so I’m not afraid of the matchup with Darvish. He’s coming off a monster game last night, it’s 100 degrees in Arlington tonight, and he’ll be underowned due to matchup. Yelich is a strong tournament play for me, especially on FD.
Johan Camargo (DK – 3600 FD – 2600)
You’re only getting him on the all day or early slates, but he continues to provide excellent value with no donuts. He just keeps hitting, especially against lefties – .364 xOBA, .295 ISO, and 45.45% HC14. All of these numbers back up his EV14 of 89.29 and make him a great value play. Keep an eye on him going forward, as he continues to pile up XBH.
