The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Mookie Betts (DK – 4900 FD – 4200)
Simple to say, we need to attack Nolasco today – he’s allowing 2.16 HR/9 and giving up a .381 xOBA. Mookie will be a highly underowned stud tonight, and his 88.70 EV14 is elite on this superstar slate. I love Mook because he puts up fantasy points even when he’s not dropping bombs. That being said, he’s rocking a .214 ISO at the moment, so he’s showing power consistently. The fact he’s an extra base hit machine and steals bases makes him the perfect DFS player in an excellent spot tonight.
Yonder Alonso (DK – 3700 FD – 3200)
There are many obvious chalk plays on this slate, so I want to explore some cheaper, underowned options who will allow us to roster a stud starting pitcher. Alonso fits the bill – don’t play him vs lefties right? Wrong dude – he’s sporting an EV14 of 89.12 and ISO .269 vs LHP, which makes him the perfect contrarian play tonight. Mr. Matz has been a dumpster fire recently, and I love attacking him with cheap OAK hitters, whether its a GPP stack or dropping them in value spots. Remember – the A’s hit bombs, especially vs LHP. Watch the lineup card though – we never know who’s playing or where they’re batting.
Johan Camargo (DK – 3100 FD – 2600)
This dude was an elite minor league defensive player, but never hit much until he was called up. He’s now stolen the SS job from Dansby Swanson, and he just keeps hitting. Although his sample size is small, his EV14 89.29, xOBA .401, and ISO .321 are impossible to ignore, especially when we’re looking for value. Phillips could be out, so we might see Camargo in the 2-hole against Wood tonight. I’m all over him if he’s hitting 2nd – he’ll get fantasy points one way or another.
