The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
The WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
JT Realmuto (DK – 3400 FD – 2900)
Realmuto moved to the 5-hole yesterday, and just missed two bombs. This guy kills LHP, and Cole Hamels no longer misses bats and is allowing an xOBA of .366. JT sports an EV14 of 86.38, ISO .271, HC14 50%, and also leads the NL in batting average on the road (.369). He possess everything we’re looking for in a high upside guy, and we can easily afford him on both sites. MIA looks poised for a big game, so don’t be afraid to roster him in cash games.
Lucas Duda (DK – 4600, FD – 3400)
Dat Duda should be back in the middle of the order versus Jhoulys Chacin, whom he’s crushed two career bombs against already. His EV14 of 87.63 sits below his elite season number of 92.4, so he’s trending down slightly, but I’m not concerned. The numbers stack up – .391 xOBA and .307 ISO back up everything we know about him – he destroys RHP. Roster him at a mid-tier price on FD.
Tim Beckham (DK – 2500 FD – 2600)
Beckham looks like a solid punt play on either site if you’re looking to pay up elsewhere. His EV14 shows he’s ready to bust out, and who better to do that against than Wade Miley, who allows an xOBA of .363 to right handed hitters. We always target righty bats against Miley, and tonight is no different. Hopefully, we’ll see him higher in the lineup in this one.
