The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more home runs.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
The WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Patio Joe
Rougned Odor (DK – 4200 FD – 2900)
Odor possesses all of the necessary statistical measures we’re looking for tonight against King Felix – EV14 of 87.26, HC14 rate of 42.86%, and ISO .243. With a team implied total of 5.1 runs, we need to look at Texas hitters in this matchup, and Odor looks like the best option, especially on FD. He burned us yesterday vs a lefty with two bombs – the only guy in the lineup we had little exposure to. This will not be the case tonight.
Nelson Cruz (DK – 3900 FD – 3600)
Nelly is that dude who crushes LHP, and the numbers back it up. His season EV ranks 4th in MLB – 93.7, and his EV14 88.92 remains strong on this slate. We also cannot ignore an xOBA .440 and HC14 44.44. Cole Hamels isn’t the guy he once was, and he’s rocking an ERA over 13 in his last three starts against SEA. Nelly is underpriced on DK today, and I will most likely lock him in my cash line.
Matt Davidson (DK – 3200 FD – 2700)
Davidson comes in sporting an EV14 of 87.09 and ISO .264 vs RHP. I know we have very little interest in the White Sox now that they’re in full tank mode, but Davidson represents serious value on both sites. Estrada sucks at pitching, so if you’re looking for some value in tournaments, Matty gives you the money to pay up elsewhere.
Tyler Moore – (DK – 2700 FD – 2200)
Purely a punt play option, Moore has value here against Gio. He’s been destroying lefties since entering the lineup for Bour – I’m paying attention to a dude with an EV14 90.75 and HC14 75%. The sample size is limited, but he’ll be hitting behind the big dogs in the order, which provides RBI opportunities. I don’t love attacking Gio, but for this price, how can you go wrong?
