The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
The WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Scott Schebler (DK – 3300 FD – 2600)
Schebler checks in with exceptional price tags on both sites today, and I expect his ownership to be minuscule. His EV14 of 87.21 rates very highly today, and his ISO (.272) and xOBA (.375) check all the boxes. I’m very interested in his HC14 at 52.94% and overall WiseTake DK rating of 80 today. The matchup with Tomlin is ideal, as JT has mostly been junk all season. Schebler is one of my favorite GPP plays today.
Brad Miller (DK – 3300 FD – 2900)
Another great value, Miller’s EV14 88.70 caught my eye. He’s not experiencing the results but had some awesome swings yesterday. The EV numbers show he’s about to break out, and at this price at the top of Tampa’s order, I’m high on him today in all formats if you’re paying up for pitching.
Joey Gallo (DK – 3700 FD – 2500)
Facing lefty Adam Conley, the matchup looks ugly, especially when you consider he’s normally batting 9th. But looking into the numbers, Gallo is a tremendous contrarian play in FD tournaments. His EV14 of 96.00 is truly elite, and the big fella ranks 3rd overall at 94.2 for the entire season. He’s also rocking an ISO .315 right now and playing in a game that should see a ton of runs on the board (TEX implied 5.7).
Consider – Corey Seager (vs Colon)