The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ @realslimgaede
Nelson Cruz (DK – 5200 FD – 4400)
No surprise here – Nelly is the cream of the crop tonight. He enters this matchup with Tyler Skaggs with an EV14 of 88.92, xOBA .440, and HC14 55.56% – and a matchup against a bottom tier lefty is always in his favor. He’s one of the hottest hitters on the planet anyways, and he’ll be chalky tonight in cash despite the hefty price tag.
David Peralta (DK – 3700 FD – 3400)
It appears Darvish is the real deal in Dodgertown, but this matchup in the Desert still favors hitters. Peralta’s has been consistently hitting righties hard, and he enters with an EV14 of 87.43. His xOBA .322 is decent, and I wouldn’t use him in cash. I do like him at this price in tournaments on DK.
Avisail Garcia (DK – 3500 FD – 3100)
Fresh off the DL, and the White Sox are hitting now! It sounds insane, but his EV14 of 91.24 and xOBA .355 look pretty good against Brad Peacock. There are definitely better outfield plays tonight, but I wouldn’t mind taking a shot at this dude in tournies. Nobody will own him, so if he jacks one you’ve got a bomb at 1% ownership.