The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Daniel Murphy (DK – 5200 FD – 3600)
Murph enters with big time stats on his side – EV14 of 91.24, a .371 xOBA, and .249 ISO. Luis Perdoma sports a .358 xOBA, so he can be exploited. The matchup isn’t the best at SD, and WAS has struggled without Harper. That being said, the numbers show Murph is a great play, but not sure I can stomach his DK price. FD only play for me today.
Trey Mancini (DK – 4000 FD – 3400)
Lefty Andrew Heaney returns to make his first start in a year, but unfortunately for him he’s running into a buzzsaw of right-handed hitters. Mancini has been down a bit lately, but we know he’s historically crushed LHP. He enters with an EV14 of 87.83, and he’s hitting in the middle of the order for a lineup implied for 5.2 runs. He’s affordable on both sites.
Mark Trumbo (DK – 3900 FD – 3300)
Basically the exact same as Mancini above, but Trumbo has better stats right now – 90.88 EV14 is one of the best on the slate, and I can say the same for his 50% HC14. He’ll be overlooked tonight on a full slate, but the matchup and price are right for a solid tournament play.
