The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ @realslimgaede
Tommy Joseph (DK – 2500 FD – 2100)
On a slate with big time pitching, we need to search for value bats, and look no further than Philly. This game was crazy yesterday with 20 total runs, and we should expect more insanity today. TJ is coming off 2 nice games, and now he’s facing a crappy lefty in Nicolini, which is where he thrives. His EV14 is elite on this slate at 92.77 mph, and he’s rocking a .291 ISO vs LHP. Did I mention he’s basically free on both sites? If you’re paying up for pitching he’s my lock of the day, even in cash games.
Jordy Mercer (DK – 2700 FD – 2100)
Here’s another guy we can punt in tonight, and he’s going to give us value. Mercer always hits lefties, and although he doesn’t possess the power upside, he’s one of those guys who’s got 3-hit potential even at the bottom of the lineup. His EV14 of 88.64 ranks very highly at SS tonight, and he’s dirt cheap on both sites. Don’t be afraid of Rich Hill.
Maikel Franco (DK – 3000 FD – 2500)
Much like his teammate above, Franco is simply too cheap for this matchup. He’s sporting a great EV14 of 87.7 and solid ISO of .215. I don’t trust him this year, so I would only use him in tournaments, but historically this matchup sets up perfectly for him. This could turn into a weird DFS day, but if you’re paying for pitching, watch the implied run totals for teams like PHI with super cheap hitters.
