The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more home runs.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Justin Turner (DK – 4300 FD – 3400)
JT absolutely mashes lefties, and has a great matchup with rookie Sean Newcomb in a hitter’s park. His EV14 88.66 ranks highly on the slate, and his .483 xOBA and .376 ISO are unmatched. I won’t overload with Dodgers tonight, as NewK pitched well against them in LA, but Turner is a cash game staple for me on FD.
Carlos Beltran (DK – 4300 FD – 3500)
I can’t ignore the old man’s EV14 0f 87.7, and I’m really looking to find the Houston player poised for a breakout tonight. The Astros have been quiet the last two nights, so I believe most players will jump off the bandwagon. Blake Snell is a decent LHP, but I like Beltran to break out with a big game. I think the Astros come back strong.
Yunel Escobar (DK – 3300 FD – 2900)
The Angels broke out big last night and won some smart people money, and I like them again in this matchup against Eickhoff. Escobar missed the game with back tightness, but hell my back was tight a few days ago and I’m working today. I expect him back in the top/middle of the order again, and his EV14 of 90.98 is elite status. He looks like a nice tournament play if you’re looking to pay down somewhere.
