The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Logan Morrison (DK – 4100 FD – 3200)
On a slate where Freddie Freeman will be chalky, I’m looking for a pivot. LOMO is that dude – his EV14 is elite at 87.03, and his .396 xOBA and .317 ISO lock him down as a top play. He’s hit Porcello very well in his career, and I love attacking Porcello. His numbers are way down off his Cy Young, and all of the advance stats show he’s been getting hit very hard. I love the FD price here, and I’m not afraid to play him in all formats.
Zack Cozart (DK – 4600 FD – 3300)
Travis Wood should not be a MLB starting pitcher, it’s that simple. The Reds will be popular tonight, and it starts with Cozart. His EV14 is solid at 87.18, but his .303 ISO and .392 xOBA seal the deal. He’s my lock of the day on FD, but he’s an exceptional cash play on both sites.
Brad Miller (DK – 2500 FD – 2600)
Stay with me here…I know Miller sucks this year. However, his EV14 of 88.7 demonstrates he’s experiencing some tough luck. His other stats aren’t worth mentioning except one – 4 career jacks against Porcello. This guy has power, he’s shown it in this matchup, and eventually he’s going to dong-out. I want to attack Porcello, especially in tournaments, and Miller’s DK price makes him a free square. DO NOT be scared off Tampa Bay because Sale dominated them last night. Porcello is not Sale! Also, these lefties will be back in the lineup tonight – locked and loaded.
