The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Tommy Joseph (DK – 4400 FD – 3900)
It’s Phillies day! Time to get weird today! My boy TJ crushes lefties, and he’s entering this game at Coors against Kyle Freeland with the following stat line – EV14 92.77 and .291 ISO. Did I mention he’s playing in Coors? I love him as a tourney play at his DK price. WiseTake loves him as well – 84 overall DK rating!
Maikel Franco (DK – 3800 FD – 3200)
Rarely do I look Franco’s way anymore in DFS. This guy provided so much promise last year, but he’s fallen fast. This being said, I do look at him for value at times when he’s facing a LHP. Tonight is the perfect scenario – vs LHP at Coors and he’s dirt cheap on both sites considering the matchup. He’s riding and EV14 of 87.7 and HC14 50% against LHP, and his .215 ISO is decent as well. Great tournament play, but I never trust him in cash. However, at this price I will consider both options.
Nick Williams (DK – 3600 FD – 3300)
I know you’re tired of PHI hitters, and this is lefty-lefty. But consider his numbers – EV14 96.0, xOBA .431, ISO .615 – do these numbers grab your attention? I’m not the least bit worried about the matchup. Freeland at best goes 5 innings, and then we’ll see the bullpen. Nobody is scared of any of those dudes. Williams is viable in all formats tonight. I love the price and potential for him and this entire lineup. Phillies stack in GPPs looks pretty hot.