The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Delino Deshields (DK – 4100 FD – 3200)
Leading off against Marco Gonzalez (who?) with a team implied 5.6 runs, Deshields should be priced higher, especially on FD. He’s coming off another big game last night, and he enters with an EV14 just under 87 MPH. TEX will be a popular stack tonight, and I suggest starting here in all formats.
Ryan Zimmerman (DK – 4400 FD – 3200)
Zim has the numbers in his favor against Julio Teheran in this matchup – EV14 of 87.6, xOBA .372, and .256 ISO. Teheran allows 1.94 HR/9, although he’s pitched better in the second half. My only concern is the motivation for WAS at this point, having already clinched the NL East. Zim is a FD tournament only play for me.
Corey Seager (DK – 4000 FD – 2600)
He’s struggling, the Dodgers have lost every game this month, and the ship is sinking quickly. But Seager is still hitting the ball hard – 90.35 EV14 – and his .399 xOBA is elite. I’m not giving up on him, but FD has. His price is criminally low and totally disrespectful! He dropped 22 FD points yesterday, so I’ve got no issues going to him tonight against Cueto. You won’t find more upside for 2600!
