The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Carlos Correa (DK – 4500 FD – 3400)
The Astros are trending way down, but the return of Correa (and trade for Verlander) offers hope for the playoffs. He’s quietly posting an EV14 of 88.8, a .237 ISO, and he’s killing lefties with a .440 xOBA. This matchup with Tyler Skaggs favors Houston, but who knows at this point. Astro stacks are dead! But I do like Correa in tournaments on DK and both formats at his price on FD.
Matt Olson (DK – 4400 FD – 3700)
This dude is one of the best young power-hitting prospects in MLB, and people still don’t care. I care about a guy with a 96.85 MPH EV14 and .344 ISO vs RHP, and I love this matchup with Doug Fister (.397 xOBA) at Fenway. Tournament only play for me, but serious bomb potential here.
Logan Forsythe (DK – 2800 FD – 2800)
We always know Forsythe hits lefties well, but due to the Dodgers completely falling apart, all of their hitters’ prices have taken a hit. (Congrats on winning their first game in September and finally clinching the division.) I’m looking toward Forsythe as a DK punt tonight – his Ev14 of 86.49 is very high at 2B, but his .405 xOBA and 50% HC14 combo make him a target against gas can Matt Moore.
