The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Nick Castellanos (DK – 4400 FD – 4100)
Casty smokes left-handed pitching – its that simple. Adelberto Mejia isn’t a good LHP, and the stats don’t lie here – Casty has an elite EV14 at 87.82 mph, and his .406 xOBA and .356 ISO make him a top cash game option.
Kendrys Morales (DK – 3700 FD – 3200)
Matching up in a revenge game against his old boys, Morales continues to hit the ball hard vs LHP. 90.46 EV14 is one of the highest marks on the slate, and his 50% HC14 rate is thru the roof! Safe play here at a cheap price.
Erick Aybar (DK – 2300 FD – 2100)
Looking to take a knee and punt on 3rd down? Here’s your guy! His EV14 ranks highly for the SS spot at 88.75 and Tyler Anderson gets ripped (.403 xOBA and 2.13 HR/9).
