The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Logan Morrison (DK – 4000 FD – 3500)
Lomo and his teammates have been incredibly volatile all season, and I have personally lost faith in this lineup. But we cannot play MLB DFS this way – we have to follow the numbers. Lomo faces Jose Berrios tonight, and he’s sporting an EV14 of 87.03 vs RHP. He’s still crushing at an elite power level (.275 ISO) and a .374 xOBA is solid as well. I always like him better at home with major HR upside.
Mike Zunino (DK – 3500 FD – 3100)
A matchup with Keuchel is tricky at this point – we don’t really know if Keuchel is his old self or not. We do know Zunino crushes lefties – 87.53 EV14, .355 xOBA, .250 ISO – and Keuchel isn’t striking anyone out. I’m expecting a bomb from him tonight, but I strongly prefer his DK price. I’m not looking to spend over 3K for a FD catcher.
Anthony Rendon (DK – 4900 FD – 3500)
The one thing we always know about Rendon – he’s a lefty masher. He’s got the best stats on the board tonight – EV14 92.22, xOBA .459, and ISO .396. He’s facing Adam Conley, whom he’s familiar with, and we realize Conley pitches either pretty well or incredibly bad. Because of this I’m looking at Rendon more for tournaments, and most likely only on FD due to the price difference.
