The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Yadier Molina (DK – 3900 FD – 3100)
Every time Travis Wood pitches we’re featuring right-handed hitters against him. Yadi’s been crushing lefties with an EV14 just south of 90 MPH and an insane HC14 of 62.5%. Wood allows an xOBA of .372 and Molina’s .415 xOBA counters that number nicely – these are the exact stats we’re looking to exploit! Only question is whether or not you want to pay up for catcher.
Matt Olson (DK – 4100 FD – 3200)
Take notice! This dude is mashing! Now we see why OAK traded Alonso to make room at 1B. Everything matches up statistically against Garrett Richards tonight – EV14 96.85, ISO .344, and HC14 50% – he’s killing right-handed pitching! I know most players don’t like rostering OAK guys, but that bias needs to end here.
Ian Desmond (DK – 4000 FD – 3300)
This play is purely matchup and circumstanially driven – he really hasn’t done much since returning from the DL. However, a Coors matchup with Ty Blach creates a nice tournament play. Let’s be honest – the Rockies have sucked since the beginning of August, even at home. They are bound to blow up sometime, and Desmond has hit the ball hard vs LHP since his return – EV14 of 87.82 tells us he’s due. GPP only play tonight.