The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Robinson Cano (DK – 4800 FD – 3100)
Cano has been struggling, right? Well he enters this contest against Lance McCullers with an EV14 of 88.49 mph, a .389 xOBA, .220 ISO, and HC14 of 40% vs RHP – you call this struggling? He’s a safe cash play tonight on FD – I’m not spending 4800 on DK here, so FD only play.
Hunter Pence (DK – 4100 FD – 3800)
He’s priced right given all the metrics here, and I like the play in tournaments if you’re searching for Coors exposure. An EV14 of 92.45 mph vs LHP ranks elite on this slate, and his .353 xOBA is decent also. GPP only option.
Johan Camargo (DK – 2000 FD – 2600)
DK missed the boat here and priced him at minimum, but he’s now active and should start in the second game of today’s double dip (the game actually on the main slate). The numbers are exceptional – EV14 just under 90, .373 xOBA, and .333 ISO – granted he’s just coming off the DL. He’s an awesome punt on DK, especially with dual eligibility at SS/3B.