The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Joe Mauer (DK – 4200 FD – 3500)
This matchup with Sam Gaviglio looks juicy for the Twins, and Mauer will be a low-owned option. He’s rocking an EV14 of 86.98 along with a .392 xOBA and a brilliant HC14 of 43.33%. Keep in mind, although Mauer doesn’t drop many bombs, Gaviglio allows 2.17 HR/9 – the highest on the slate. MIN will be chalky, but Mauer won’t be, which makes an excellent tournament play.
Zack Cozart (DK – 4500 FD – 3100)
Facing Matt Harvery, the former “Dark Knight”, who allows 2.05 HR/9 this year, Cozart represents a solid cash play at his FD price. His 88.45 mph EV14 ranks among the highest tonight for projected starters, and his .245 ISO looks sexy even at Citi Field. It’s about to turn midnight on the Dark Knight in NY.
Derek Dietrich (DK – 2800 FD – 3100)
Here’s your contrarian play vs LHP Sean Newcomb – DD’s EV14 of 96.4 ranks with the elite of the elite, and his .361 xOBA shows he’s very successful against lefties. I love this punt play on DK at 2800. Miami should go off tonight.
