Hey WiseTake Nation,
Another 9 game slate. Was/Atl game my favorite. I like both sides. Was-Eaton, Harper, Turner, Zimmerman and Goodwin. Atl-Inciarte, Albies, Freeman, Tucker and Markakis are all in play.
I will most likely be fading Kershaw and Verlander and paying down for a pitcher. This way can get some higher priced bats.
* I usually don’t list chalk plays and try to focus on lower ownership plays in good matchups.
Notes- Roof Status
Chase Field-Open good for hitters.
Miller Park- should be closed and actually better for hitters.
Harper will be chalk and for good reason. Crushes Teheran and park is great for lefties. Nice pivot is Trout who is in a very good spot as well. If you go Graveman can fit both in. Nice Angel mini stack Trout/Cozart.
2-options if you want to pay down from Kershaw and Verlander. I prefer to pay down.
Kendall Graveman (OAK)
Graveman was one of my favorite GPP arms last year, but only in certain situations. He pitches much better at home 2.94 ERA and only 6 HRs in 61 innings. He also pitches much better vs LHH’s, which is where most of the Rangers power comes from. Can add in that the Rangers have been cold at the plate so far this year. 51 % ground ball pitcher, which is elite. I can see him throwing 6-7 innings 5 K’s 1-2 ER’a Win and QS. If you play him I would suggest throwing in a hedge stack. Beltre, Andrus, Gallo.
Zach Godley is my second choice for lower ownership/high upside. Elite ground ball pitcher 56.5%. A very good .283 wOBA at home as well. Like him even with the roof open tonight.
Eric Thames (Mil)
Hits well vs RHP .391 wOBA and .286 ISo with 43.6 HC.
Edit- No Matt Adams, so pivoting to Ryan Zimmerman– hits well vs RHP. .375 wOBA and .252 ISO.
*Matt Adams- rates well on the model (.368 wOBA, .259 ISO and just shy of 40 HC vs RHP). Great ballpark for LHH’s and has solid BvP vs Teheran. Also, Teheran allowed 2.25 HRs/9 to LHH’s last year. Should get over looked. Hopefully he makes the lineup. Stack with Eaton, Harper and Turner(SB upside here and he hits much better vs RHP. Sneaky play). If Adams does not play Zimmerman is a good play as well.
Marwin Gonzalez is in play agian tonight vsa RHP. Does well vs them.
Ozzie Albies (ATL)
Cole struggles vs LHH’s with a .414 wOBA. Albies bats right in front of Freeman, so good chance he scores come runs.
Kolten Wong (STL)
He is in the Cardinal lineup tonight. .348 wOBA and has some pop. Nice park for hitters.
I think all three of these 3B are in a good spot and have good chances of going yard.
Matt Davidson (CWS)
Happ is a solid pitcher, but struggles a bit vs at home vs RHH’s. Davidson has the power to take him deep.
Zach Cozart (LAA)
Hits better vs LHP, but still does well vs RHP. Has solid BvP vs Tomlin.
Matt Carpenter (STL)
Hits well in Miller Park. Roof should be closed, which is better for hitters.
Trea Turner (WAS)
He is one of the highest priced SS on the main slate, but he is in an excellent spot and I think he may get overlooked for a few reasons. One is that Kershaw and Verlander will get a lot of ownership and people will have to pay down for some positions. Two, he hits much better vs RHP and he has SB upside here. Teheran allowed 27 SB’s last year with a 84% success rate.
Aledmys Diaz (TOR)
Hits better vs RHP. Nice matchup against Miguel Gonzalez.
Hunter Renfroe (SD)
Anytime Renfroe is facing a LHP I will have exposure to him, even against some of the top tier pitchers. He crushes the ball vs them .439 wOBA and .368 ISO. These are both elite stats. I think Freeland is a good pitcher, but Renfoe will take him deep tonight. One off play for me. Double/Triple dong upside.
Preston Tucker (ATL)
Decent pop and nice field for LHH’s. AJ Cole struggles vs LHH’s allowing a .414 wOBA, 2.25 HR/9 and 46.9% HC to them last year. Stack with Freeman, Incairte, Markakis and Albies.
Jake Marisnick (HOU)
I was hoping he made the lineup yesterday, but the Astros played Fisher instead. If Marisnick cracks the lineup he is a lock for me with his reverse/home splits. Dude crushes the ball in Minute Maid Park vs RHP(.469 wOBA and .409 ISO). He will have 2% or under ownership if he goes. Double/Dong potential.
Randal Grichuk (TOR)
Nice power vs RHP .248 ISO. Like him to go yard today.
Brian Goodwin (WAS)
Nice power vs RHP’s .248 ISO. Great park for lefties.
You can find me on Twitter @FantasyBum73
**Good Lucy and Stay Cashing