The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
MLB: Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Kyle Schwarber (DK – 3800 FD – 3400)
Schwarbs looks like a top play given his numbers vs RHP lately – 88.58 EV14, 54.55% HC14, .252 ISO, and .361 xOBA – and we focus on stats here. Maybe the matchup against Chris Archer isn’t the best, but his price and production warrant strong consideration.
Mookie Betts (DK – 5400 FD – 4400)
Betts EV14 number of 88.2 ranks very highly in this slate, despite his other stats looking unimpressive. I still like Betts in all formats due to the fact he absolutely OWNS Kevin Gausman – 12-26 with 3 jacks. He should be highly owned in cash games on both sites.
Tim Beckham (DK – 4100 FD – 3500)
Beckham finally cooled off, but he’s still ripping the ball against left-handed pitching. His EV14 of 88.35 and HC14 of 50% combine for an elite matchup here with Drew Pomeranz. He does own a career bomb in four ABs, but I’ll save this play for tournaments tonight.