The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
MLB: Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Daniel Murphy (DK – 5100 FD – 3500)
Murph’s matchup is golden against rookie Lucas Sims, and he comes in with an elite EV14 of 91.24 mph. He’s also crushing RHP with a .293 ISO and .415 xOBA. I don’t love paying over 5K, but he’s a safe cash game lock on FD at 3500.
Kris Bryant (DK – 4600 FD – 4300)
Another incredible matchup here – Bryant vs lefty Blake Snell at the Trop. Bryant is mashing LHP with a .455 xOBA and .289 ISO, and he’s tops amongst projected starters at third base with an EV14 just south of 90. Numbers never lie! I prefer his DK price today for cash games.
Brandon Moss (DK – 3200 FD – 2800)
Not sure he’ll start against lefty Brett Anderson, but he’s actually destroying LHP with and EV14 of 88.98 to go along with a .415 xOBA and .293 ISO. Apparently it’s a misconception that Moss can’t hit lefties, he just hasn’t had enough opportunities. If he’s in the lineup, he makes for an excellent contrarian tournament play on both sites.
