The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Robinson Cano (DK – 3000 FD – 3700)
DK LOCK OF THE DAY! DK inexplicably priced Cano way down in a matchup with Daniel Gossett, even though he’s been balling out these last five games. His EV14 of 88.49 along with a .389 xOBA and .220 ISO have him graded an 80 overall on our DK rankings – and he’s $3000! Just lock him up.
Hanley Ramirez (DK – 3800 FD – 2700)
Hanley looks like an exceptional FD play in this matchup against Brett Anderson, as he’s historically crushed lefties. It’s been an up-and-down season, but after taking the last three games off, Ramirez should be rested and ready. We’re grading him an 88 overall today, as the numbers all add up to a high ceiling play at a low cost. BOS is implied for 5.2 runs, and Hanley is killing LHP (EV14 86.08, .392 xOBA, .259 ISO, HC14 66.7%) – great FD play at this price!
Yadier Molina (DK – 3700 FD – 3200)
He’s facing a guy he knows well in Jon Lester, and even at his advanced age, Yadi still rakes against left-handed pitching. His EV14 of 89.24 ranks tops among projected starters at catcher, and his .415 xOBA and 62.5% HC14 rate ranks very highly overall for all hitters. If you’re willing to pay up at this position, here is your guy.
