The Statcast era of Major League Baseball brought about an entirely new set of statistics (Average Exit Velocity, Batted Ball Distance, Launch Angle, etc.) that go beyond traditional and advanced stats. Exit Velocity (EV) is the most important of these new stats, and it remains underutilized in DFS.
EV is defined as the speed (measured in Miles Per Hour) at which the baseball comes off a hitter’s bat. Every time the ball is contacted EV is calculated, regardless of the result of the contact. A higher MPH means a batter hits the ball harder on average, which generally leads to more hits and more homeruns.
DFS players need to target hitters with high EV, so we roster guys who are hitting the ball hard. This helps us see hitters who might be slumping in average and HRs, but could break out soon because they’re ripping the ball. Conversely, we can see hitters who may have decent numbers lately, but they haven’t been contacting the ball consistently, so we can avoid them.
WiseTake’s Hitter’s Model utilizes EV (final column), which shows the batter’s average EV over the last 14 days and includes handedness. The EV number you see represents the last 14 days vs either a right-handed pitcher or lefty, depending on the starting pitcher the batter is facing today. If you’re looking for consistency – cross reference this number with the hitter’s average EV for the entire season. If both numbers are high, you’re looking at a consistent hitter.
Hitters, Fast and Furious w/ Slim Gaede
Nelson Cruz (DK – 4000 FD – 3900)
Targeting Nelly against lefties always makes sense, but his numbers against RHP right now are staggering – 90.46 EV14, .373 xOBA, and .278 ISO. He’s also a season leader in EV, so we know he’s always a solid play. Tonight he’s facing Ricky Nolasco, who allows 2.04 HR/9 – blast off at his value price on DK.
Jose Martinez (DK – 4200 FD – 2700)
Boom or bust play here – he’s a big strong dude who swings hard. When he connects, he does damage, but he swings and misses too much. Best part of this matchup against Trevor Williams? Williams isn’t a swing-and-miss pitcher. J-Mart enters with and EV14 of 86.55 and xOBA of .354. I love his FD price for a tournament play.
Asdrubal Cabrera (DK – 3900 FD – 3400)
This lineup is completely devastated with injuries, but Cabrera has performed well in the 3-hole. He’s coming in with an EV14 of 87.18, and this matchup with Amir Garrett is glorious! Garrett allows 2.93 HR/9 and a .394 xOBA. But guess what? Cabrera was injured last night and may not play tonight. Keep an eye on this injury, but regardless, this lineup offers amazing value on both sites tonight.
