MMA DFS strategy
MMA DFS strategy is slightly different from other sports but like picking the correct MLB pitcher since you get points for strikeouts, innings pitched and are in contention for the win if their team is in the lead when they leave the game. With MMA at the end of the fight there is a point outcome based on significant strikes, takedowns, knock downs, knock outs or submissions and rounds fought. Barring a draw one fighter wins while the other loses.
Picking the winning fighter is important, equally important is picking the winning fighter with a KO or early submission. A first round KO is worth far more than a win by decision, when constructing your lineup focusing on those two factors should be the main focus.
Try to identify the underdog most equipped to surprise his or her opponent.
Winning a GPP you must be contrarian like other DFS Low ownership will help you leapfrog your competition. If you take Vegas odds into context if a fighter is favored at -420 how often does that fighter lose? General DFS players will see that line and pick that fighter because they are supposed to win! Which will lead to high ownership.
High ownership is the GPP bankroll killer, you’re risking your money to win top prize money, not split with hundreds of others.
For cash games, I look at the contest entry slightly different.
I focus on single entry double ups and 50/50’s with less than 200 entries.
I look for fighters that have high point output, throws punches in bunches, shoots/completes takedowns and KO/submission % that is high.
I look at the fights that each fighter is evenly matched and has the potential to go the full three or five rounds. I usually try to fit in no more than two fighters that fit this mold into my lineup any more than that might not get you to the cash line.
Things that I watch out for are fighters who are timid and lack the striking to score points. If a fighter is a wrestler but not a striker yes, he may get points for take downs but his significant strikes will be low so I tend to fade those type of fighters.