Hey WiseTake Nation,
10 game slate with a lot of value on it. This time of year there are a lot of players hurt or resting and it opens up some good value plays. Steph Curry is back, but Draymond Green is sitting out tonight. Giannis has already been ruled out, so most will flock right to Bledsoe, Middleton and Parker(who is my favorite price/per$ ofnthe three). One of the player I am interested in is Jusif Nurkic. If he sits out I will be all in on Ed Davis, who will feast against the Celtics tonight. This is a tough time of year, so keep an eye out for players sitting right up until lock. This will also open up minutes for a few other Blazers including Turner and Zach Collins, who could easily hit value if he gets around 20 minutes.
Value Plays are players listed on FanDuel at 6k and under. The DvP is also based off FanDuel, but these plays can be used on most sites.
Note on DvP on why I usually use two weak timeframes. Players get hurt, lineups change and I have tried using a few different timeframes and two weeks seem to work the best.(Tried using year, month and 2-weeks in my projections. This is how I came this conclusion). An example would be the Jazz and when Gobert was out. He is a very good defender and they were one of the best defending C’s with him in the lineup, but when he was out the Jazz were close to the worst. If we continued to use the yearly DvP it would not be as accurate for the lineups the Jazz were putting out.
Point Guards
Dejounte Murray ($5900)
The Price is finally back down on Murray and he is back in play for me, especially tonight against Rubio(Schroder and Barea both torched him in the last two games). This kid does not need to score to hit value he usually does it on rebounding and defensive stats. On a large slate like this I can see Murray getting overlooked and coming in at very low ownership. Love the upside for him tonight.
Shane Larkin ($3600)
Larkin’s minutes have increased with all of the Celtic guards out. He has played over 20 in three of the last four games and should see mid 20’s tonight. Production has been all over he place, but he will do well in this matchup. 20 plus FP’s tonight.
Cameron Payne should see an increase in minutes with Blakeny done for the season. Good to hi value, but has yet to show much upside.
Delon Wright and Fred VanVleet are both in play vs the Nets. They have both been playing solid minutes and producing off the bench. Wright is a bit cheaper with similar upside. You can look to Jerian Grant who should see a bump as well and has the upside at a cheaper price.
Shooting Guards
Damion Lee ($3700)
Since joining the Hawks Lee has put up 20 or more FP’s in three of the five game he played. He has been starting and playing around 20 minutes a game. Tonight he will get Nick Young defense who is more interested in shooting the ball.
Nick Young is actually a good play as well against the poor defense is the Hawks(right behind the Suns in FP’s allowed over past two weeks). Young is playing a ton of minutes.
Jamal Crawford ($4000)
Crawford has been playing more minutes. Excellent matchup for him and potential for extra run with blowout factor in play.
Devin Harris ($4300)
Harris has been playing more minutes with the other Harris out. 25 or more FP’s in the last two games.
If Devin Booker sits out again Troy Daniels is an excellent play vs the Cavs.
Small Forwards
Evan Turner ($3600)
Turner is listed as a game-time-decision on FanDuel, but he is actually probable to play. He is going against one of his former teams that has is somewhat depleted. The Celtics are missing Brown and Smart who are the best defenders in the team. If he plays, which I think he will love this spot for him. Had upside of 7-8x tonight.
David Nwaba ($4400)
The Bulls are down another player along with the few the team have been sitting for no reason. Nwaba should see some additional minutes. He has played well when seeing more than 20 minutes and should see that tonight.
Micheal Beasley is always in play when under 6k. No Butler to stop him, so he should go off.
Power Forwards
Jabari Parker ($5700)
The Bucks will most likely be without Giannis tonight, which open up 31.5% usage. Middleton sees the biggest increase in usage with a 5.5% increase and then Bledsoe and Parker get right around 3%. When Giannis went out Parker started the second half and played 30 minutes, which was the most he played this year and put up 37.7 FP’s. Price/Per/$ he is my favorite of the three. He is capable of 40 plus FP’s against the Bulls.
Ed Davis ($4200)
Davis will own the glass against he Celtics tonight as they have no one to content against him. Nurkic is listed as questionable and if he sits Ed Davis becomes a lock for me. I like Davis either way because he should have no problem paying off his salary with 15-20 minutes, but if he gets over 20 his upside goes up to 40 FP’s in this matchup.
Marcus Morris will do well tonight against the Blazers. His price is down a bit and this is a good time to play him. They will need him on the floor to compete with the Blazers.
Jordan Bell gets the start tonight for Draymond Green. He will most likely be popular, but he is a good play due to the matchup and Warriors limited roster.
Noah Vonleh is in play if Markkanen sits out again. He has been playing very well.
If Paul Milsap sits out Mason Plumlee and Trey Lyles are in play. I prefer Mason Plumlee because he is more of an all around player. He will most likely get over looked and could put up 7x at his price.
Centers
Jakob Poeltl ($4300)
Poeltl is some cheap exposure to the worst team defending the C position as they have allowed 56.4 FP’s on the year and 64 over the last two weeks. His minutes have bee up and down, but usually plays around 18-20 and against a the Nets he could easily do damage and hit value. I think the Poeltl gets some additional minutes either from a blowout and or them limiting Valancuinas minutes. Has shown over 40 FP upside.
Christianio Felicio ($4200)
Price is up a bit, but he is still in play agains the Bucks as the allow 61.5 FP’s to opposing C’ Over the past two weeks. Back-to-back 25 FP games.
Alex Len ($4400)
It looks like Tyson Chandler may be shut down for the rest of the season possibly opening up some minutes for Len. He is a beast when on the court and gets solid minutes. The risk is definitely in play due to the minutes fluctuating for Len, Chriss, Bender, so keep an eye out for news on the Suns tonight. IF Len starts he is an excellent play, IF he does not then he becomes a risky play. This year he is averaging 1.1 FPPM and gets a team that has allowed close to 60 FP’s a game over the last two weeks. Huge upside with minutes.
*Good Luck and Stay Cashing
