WiseTake Nation! I’m KamG333 and I will be doing your NFL Game Previews on a week to week basis. This season is going to be a lot of fun and I’m excited to be a part of the WiseTake Community. Let’s dive in.
NFL Week 1 Preview (Main) w/KamG333
These will be up a lot earlier in the week but I just started writing for WiseTake yesterday and thought I could give you guys a little something for Week 1.
In these NFL Game Preview articles, I am going to be doing an overview of all of the games for that week’s slate. We will be coving the Vegas odds, game totals, projected scores for each team, the injury report, notable matchups, and anything else I feel is important that will allow us to succeed on Sundays.
Notes: Rankings for the following teams represent last year’s outcomes as this is week 1 and have no statistical data to represent the current rosters. However, we can use these statistics along with the knowledge of roster changes, coaching changes, and player improvement to help make educated decisions come Sunday before lineup lock! DVOA is a great tool we should be using. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage but yardage toward a first down; five yards on 3rd and 4 is worth more that 5 yards on 1st and 10. Red zone is weighted very heavily in DVOA which is great because Red zone is very important to us in Fantasy Football. It is adjusted based on the quality of the opponent the player and team are playing. DVOA is a percentage. A team with an offensive DVOA of 10%, is 10% better than the league average. A player with a -20% DVOA, is 20% worse than league average. DVOA is a measure of scoring, therefore we must know that when we are reading these statistics DVOA is measuring point output. A negative number for offense shows lack of point outcome and is something we want to avoid, yet a negative outcome for defense indicates lack of scoring allowed which is something we want in our defenses.
vs
Pittsburg Steelers at Cleveland Browns
- Vegas Odds: Pittsburg (-8.5) at Cleveland (+8.5)
- Game Total: 47
- Projected Points: Pittsburg (27.75) / Cleveland (19.25)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 66o with winds blowing 11mph toward the east end zone.
Pittsburg Steelers
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Bud Dupree (Questionable) LOLB
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 8 | 7 | 12.5% |
| Defense | 12 | 11 | -4.7% |
Cleveland Browns
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Danny Shelton (Probable) NT, Myles Garrett (Out) DE
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 29 | 12 | -13.4% |
| Defense | 29 | 27 | 14.5% |
Preview: There is a lot of chatter around this game and for good reason. We have a divisional matchup with a rookie starting quarterback taking the snaps for the Browns week 1. Watch Keith Butler try to blitz Kizer and force him into some pressure situations early. It is an interesting matchup as the Browns made some great free agent signing on the offensive line this year in Kevin Zeitler and JC Tretter to pair with Joe Thomas. If they can hold against the pressure the wide recievers will have time to get down the field and Kizer will have opportunities to use his big arm. The Browns running game was middle of the pack last year ranking .4% according to DVOA. The additions will only make the running attack better. Guys like Crowell and Johnson are in play. On the Steelers end the main story was the LeVeon Bell holdout. That is over with and should not be a concern in terms of usage. Bell when coming back from injury or suspension in the last two seasons has played 90% of snaps in those initial games back. Martavis Bryant is coming back as well. When Bryant is on the field, the offense is far more effective than without him. This gives them a deep threat that moves some attention away from Brown. One thing to note is that Big Ben has terrible home (+)/road (–) splits.
Facts:
- The Pittsburg Steelers are 8-2 in their last 10 games vs the Cleveland Browns.
- The last 10 games between these two teams have gone under the game total 7 times.
vs
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
- Vegas Odds: New York Jets (+8) at Buffalo Bills (-8)
- Game Total: 40
- Projected Points: New York Jets (16) / Buffalo Bills (24)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 65o with winds blowing 7mph across the field.
New York Jets
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Austin Seferian-Jenkins (suspension) TE, Quincy Enunwa (IR) WR, Devin Smith (IR) WR, Jalin Marshall (suspension) WR.
*included IR to show lack of depth*
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 31 | 20 | -21.9% |
| Defense | 31 | 1* | 3.7% |
Buffalo Bills
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Tyrod Taylor (Probable) QB, Jordan Matthews (Probable) WR- should play but limited time in camp with new team,
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 18 | 1 | 10.7% |
| Defense | 21 | 30 | 7.8% |
Preview: The Bills in the off season decided to depart with Rex Ryan and revamp with former defensive coordinator for the Panthers Sean McDermott. They also have brand new offensive and defensive coordinators. With this, they are going to want to ground and pound all year through their running game. The Jets just recently shipped out Sheldon Richardson to the Seahawks which is a huge loss of talent to the Jets defensive line. THIS IS NOT THE SAME RUN DEFNESE. This makes me like Shady even more. For fantasy purposes, I don’t see much here besides the obvious in LeSean McCoy. I also don’t hate the Tyrod Taylor play as he has played very well against the Jets in the past. The Jets will be down in this game which will allow game flow to favor the likes of Bilal Powell and Matt Forte in the pass game along with Robbie Anderson as the only serviceable wide out in that receiving core.
Facts:
- The Buffalo Bills are 6-4 in their last 10 meetings against the Jets.
- The last 10 games between these two teams has been over the game total 5 times and under the game total 5 times.
vs
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
- Vegas Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars (+5) at Houston Texans (-5)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Jacksonville Jaguars (17.25) / Houston Texans (22.25)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 84o with winds blowing 10mph toward the North endzone. (retractable dome)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Leonard Fournette (Not listed on Report) RB, Marquise Lee (Probable) WR, T.J. Yeldon (Questionable) RB.
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 23 | 28 | -11.3% |
| Defense | 15 | 12 | -3.1% |
Houston Texans
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Will Fuller (Out) WR, Alfred Blue (Out) RB
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 30 | 27 | -21.2% |
| Defense | 5 | 18 | -5.8% |
Preview: Houston should be wild on Sunday with people wanting to get their minds off of what has been going on in their community. I expect a lot of fire out of the Texans. The starting Quarterback for the Texans is going to be Tom Savage who got some starts for the Texans last year. Deshaun Watson will be the backup but I think ultimately the coaches want to play Savage throughout the year of they can. An interesting matchup in this game is going to be A.J Bouye covering former teammate Deandre Hopkins. Bouye established himself as a top corner in the league last year and is a great addition to the improved Jags defense. With the signings of Calais Campbell, Barry Church, A.J Bouye, Malik Jackson, and getting Donte Fowler back from injury this is a very scary defense. I like then to be a top 5 defense this year. Leonard Fournette is not listed on the injury report for week 1 so take that how you want to. I expect him to get a lot carries as this offense is going to be run 1st all year long and I can’t say I blame them after watching the Jags preseason games this year.
Facts:
- The Houston Texans have won 8 out of the last 10 games vs the Jacksonville Jaguars.
- The 10 games between the two teams have been over the game total 6 times.
vs
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins
- Vegas Odds: Philadelphia Eagles (-1) at Washington Redskins (+1)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Philadelphia Eagles (24.25) / Washington Redskins (23.25)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 68o with winds blowing 6mph across the field.
Philadelphia Eagles
Notable Injuries/suspensions: None
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 25 | 11 | -5.5% |
| Defense | 2 | 13 | -12.4% |
Washington Redskins
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Ryan Kerrigan (Questionable) OLB, Jamison Crowder (Questionable) WR
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 5 | 4 | 15.8% |
| Defense | 24 | 24 | 6.8% |
Preview: We get to see Carson Wentz under center in his sophomore year vs an improved Washington Redskins defense. The addition of Johnathon Allen will help them in pass rush and run defense, however the Eagles offensive line is one of the best in the league. 30 Million dollar a year Kirk Cousins gets a new toy in the pass game to play with in Terrelle Pryor and also gets a healthy Jordan Reed. Crowder will be in the slot again but if he doesn’t play he will be replaced by Josh Doctson. The Eagles also added a star wide receiver in Alshon Jeffrey who is going to be placed in a tough spot week 1 being shadowed by Josh Norman. Look for Zach Ertz to be super chalky in both formats as he is extremely underpriced on DraftKings. The Eagles backfield is still uncertain and this is a sit and wait situation until we see what they are going to do with these guys.
Facts:
- The Washington Redskins have won 7 out of the last 10 games vs the Washington Redskins.
- The game total has gone over 6 times, under 3 times, and pushed once in the last 10 games.
vs
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions
- Vegas Odds: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5) at Detroit Lions (+2.5)
- Game Total: 48
- Projected Points: Arizona Cardinals (25.25) / Detroit Lions (22.75)
- Gametime Weather: Dome
Arizona Cardinals
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Robert Nkemdiche (Questionable) DE, Deone Buccannon (Out) LB
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 27 | 14 | -6% |
| Defense | 3 | 7 | -13.6% |
Detroit Lions
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Kenny Galladay (Questionable) WR, Ziggy Ansah (Questionable) DE
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 13 | 25 | -.6% |
| Defense | 32 | 19 | 18.5% |
Preview: Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals are going to Detroit in a very favorable matchup against the pitiful Detroit Pass defense. I also think that this is going to be a great spot for David Johnson. Larry Fitzgerald is going to be the chalk going up against Quandre Diggs who in my opinion might have been the worst corner in the league. I love David Johnson. I literally like this guy in any matchup. I think he is matchup proof obviously with price in consideration. He is a top two back in the league and not only gets a bunch of carries but a bunch of receptions. That sounds like a recipe for success. Palmer is getting old and regressed a little last year but he is worth consideration here against a bad pass defense. Now on the Detroit side of the ball, Jim Bob-Cooter is a nice coordinator that works well with Stafford that was apparent last year. It’s going to be the same offense you saw last year. Personally, I don’t like this matchup for them and I am staying away. Many might like the dink and dunk backs but I am comfortable staying away. I think the side of the ball you are going to want to own is those Arizona Cardinals.
Facts:
- Not a divisional opponent so I am not going to touch on history here.
vs
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals
- Vegas Odds: Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Baltimore Ravens (19.25) / Cincinnati Bengals (22.25)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 68o with winds blowing 9mph across the field.
Baltimore Ravens
Notable Injuries/suspensions: None
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 26 | 21 | -7.5% |
| Defense | 10 | 4 | -9.9% |
Cincinnati Bengals
Notable Injuries/suspensions: John Ross (Questionable) WR.
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 11 | 13 | 7.5% |
| Defense | 14 | 20 | .8% |
Preview: This is an AFC North battle which are always fun to watch. The first place I want to start here is the change in the offensive line that has happened in Cincy this year. They let go of Andrew Whitworth who I think is a significant loss for the Bengals. The Bengals now have one of the worst lines in the league which will make it hard throughout the year. I love A.J. Green this week he has just been someone I have liked a lot throughout the years. He does very well against the Ravens every year. On the other side of the ball we get the Ravens vs a Bengals defense who has given up receptions to the running back over the past years so Woodhead is an interesting play here. The Ravens will have a platoon at the running back position and I am not interested in the running backs until I see more. Jeremy Maclin will be coming over from KC and working from the slot and from the outside. I want to see more from both of these teams before I start playing them in DFS.
Facts:
- The Baltimore Ravens have won 7 out of the last 10 matchups vs the Baltimore Ravens.
- The game total has gone under 5 times, 4 times under, and 1 time a push in the last 10 matchups.
vs
Tennessee Titans at Oakland Raiders
- Vegas Odds: Oakland Raiders (+3) at Tennessee Titans (-3)
- Game Total:50.5
- Projected Points: Oakland Raiders (23.75) / Tennessee Titans (26.75)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 74o with winds blowing 8mph across the field.
Tennessee Titans
Notable Injuries/suspensions:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 9 | 8 | 10.8% |
| Defense | 27 | 10 | 6.4% |
Oakland Raiders
Notable Injuries/suspensions:
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 4 | 16 | 12.2% |
| Defense | 25 | 17 | 4.3% |
Preview: The second highest point total of the slate and we are expecting a shootout. Last year the Raiders and the Titians were the defenses you wanted to pick on with Quarterbacks and this isn’t going to change this year. The management for both of these teams didn’t really change all of that much with the roster on these sides of the ball. Guys like Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree are going to get man coverage on the outside and they should be successful. The Titans offensive line is great and I look for them to continue to dominate on the ground vs a below average defense. The Raiders were really bad on defesne last year and I expect that to improve with the help of Bruce Irvin and Reggie Nelson from last year working their way into the defense, however I still think they will have issues. All the Titans are in play. It is worthy to note that the Titans have increased their wide receiver talent drastically this year and might be smart to try to sit out a week and see how these guys will fit into the offense.
Facts:
- Not a divisional opponent so I am not going to touch on history here.
vs
Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
- Vegas Odds: Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Chicago Bears (+6)
- Game Total: 48
- Projected Points: Atlanta Falcons (27) / Chicago bears (21)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 68o with winds blowing 10mph across the field.
Atlanta Falcons
Notable Injuries/suspensions: None
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 1 | 6 | 24.6% |
| Defense | 18 | 28 | 7.3% |
Chicago Bears
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Prince Amukamara (out) CB, Kyle Long (Doubtful) T
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 20 | 18 | -2.6% |
| Defense | 17 | 29 | 5.0% |
Preview: The Falcons coming off of their Super Bowl loss come into the city of Chicago looking to avenge that loss to a below average team. Matt Ryan and the Falcons are going to look to exploit the Chicago secondary who tried to improve it but unfortunately Amukamara is out and they will have no one who will be able to cover Julio. Jordan Howard is a fine play here but I don’t think the Falcons defense is bad. I like their scheme and I think they aren’t going to get hurt here.
Facts:
- Not a divisional opponent so I am not going to touch on history here.
vs
Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Rams
- Vegas Odds: Indianapolis Colts (+4) at Lose Angeles Rams (-4)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Indianapolis Colts (18.75) / Lose Angeles Rams (22.75)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 82o with winds blowing1mph across the field slightly toward the West endzone.
Indianapolis Colts
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Andrew Luck (Out) QB, Vontae Davis (Out) CB
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 17 | 10 | 3.7% |
| Defense | 26 | 32 | 12.5% |
Los Angeles Rams
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Aaron Donald (holdout) DT
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 32 | 32 | -37.8% |
| Defense | 20 | 6 | -2.0% |
Preview: I don’t really even want to write this game up but I will. The Colts come into the Rams new make shift stadium without Andrew Luck and are going to stark Scott Tolzien. The Colts are also going to be missing their top corner in Vontae Davis who would most likely be covering Sammy Watkins who the Rams signed from Buffalo. The Rams improved their offensive line this year in attempt to help their 1st round investment Todd Gurley. They will be facing off in a great matchup against the Colts run defense. I like Gurley this week especially for his price on both sites.
Facts:
- Not a divisional opponent so I am not going to touch on history here.
vs
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
- Vegas Odds: Seattle Seahawks (+3) at Green Bay Packers(-3)
- Game Total: 52
- Projected Points: Seattle Seahawks (24.5) / Green Bay Packers (27.5)
- Gametime Weather: Sunny 67o with winds blowing 9mph slightly toward the South endzone.
Seattle Seahawks
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Thomas Rawls (Questionable) RB.
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 14 | 22 | -2.6% |
| Defense | 13 | 3 | -10.6% |
Green Bay Packers
Notable Injuries/suspensions: None
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 7 | 5 | 16.6% |
| Defense | 23 | 14 | 2.5% |
Preview: Here we go again. Another potential NFC championship matchup between these two. The highest point total on the slate. Over the last 5 year the team that is at home has won the game. Personally, I think that the Packers are a way more talented and better team than the Seahawks are. I am not all so scared of the Seahawks secondary against this Packer offense as we have seen in the past that the Packers can create the matchups they want through various sets and motion. Don’t be surprised if they do a lot of 5 wide out sets with Ty Montgomery motioning out to the outside from the running back position to create another mismatch. Honestly, I am not scared of the Seahawks offense. I think with the talent on their offensive line the packers will be able to get to Russell Wilson and force some mistakes. Disclaimer: I am very confident Packers fan. Realistically I think that the receivers for both teams are good plays along with both Quarterbacks.
Facts:
- The last 5 games played between the these two have been won by the home team.
vs
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
- Vegas Odds: New York Giants (+4.5) at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: New York Giants (21.5) / Dallas Cowboys (26)
- Gametime Weather: Dome
New York Giants
Notable Injuries/suspensions: Odell Beckham Jr. (Questionable) WR.
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 21 | 26 | -6% |
| Defense | 4 | 2 | -14.5% |
Dallas Cowboys
Notable Injuries/suspensions: None
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 3 | 2 | 19.9% |
| Defense | 19 | 8 | 1.1% |
Preview: The last game of this main slate is a nice matchup between the Giants and the Cowboys. We get to watch Zeke as he has somehow dodge his suspension it seems like. This is a matchup up of good defense vs good offense and last year the Giants won this matchup both times. They were able to hold Zeke well below his season average in both of their meetings. I don’t have much interest in this game.
Facts:
- The Dallas Cowboys have won 6 out of the last 10 games vs the New York Giants
- The game total has gone over 7 times out of the last 10 games.
