NFL Week 6 Preview w/KamG333
The Nation had a great Week 5 and I want to keep seeing those screen shots!
In these NFL Game Preview articles, I am going to be doing an overview of the Main Slate of this week’s slate. We will be coving the Vegas odds, game totals, projected scores for each team, the injury report, notable matchups, a recap of the later week and anything else I feel is important that will allow us to succeed on Sundays.
Notes: DVOA is a great tool we should be using. DVOA measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage but yardage toward a first down; five yards on 3rd and 4 is worth more that 5 yards on 1st and 10. Red zone is weighted very heavily in DVOA which is great because Red zone is very important to us in Fantasy Football. It is adjusted based on the quality of the opponent the player and team are playing. DVOA is a percentage. A team with an offensive DVOA of 10%, is 10% better than the league average. A player with a -20% DVOA, is 20% worse than league average. DVOA is a measure of scoring, therefore we must know that when we are reading these statistics DVOA is measuring point output. A negative number for offense shows lack of point outcome and is something we want to avoid, yet a negative outcome for defense indicates lack of scoring allowed which is something we want in our defenses.
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens
- Vegas Odds: Bears (+6.5) at Ravens (-6.5)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Bears (16.5) / Ravens (23)
Chicago Bears
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 30 | 19 | -23.1% |
| Defense | 20 | 16 | 2.7% |
Baltimore Ravens
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 25 | 17 | -9.3% |
| Defense | 2 | 22 | -14.9% |
Preview:
Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens weren’t very flashy on the road in Oakland but did what they had to do to get out of the game with a win. I think that Joe Flacco’s back is starting to feel better and he looked better in this one. He threw for 222 yards with no touchdowns but I think it is worth noting that he is throwing the ball better than earlier in the year which makes his weapons more interesting. His back feeling better allowed him to be more accurate down field to his deep threat Mike Wallace where they hooked up 3 times for 133 yards. The Oakland secondary is not good by any means but we are always looking for a nice cheap GPP and Wallace now has that potential as Flacco is looking for him deep. I also liked what I saw out of Alex Collins and Buck Allen in this one. Alex Collins is the better running back. Buck Allen gets more opportunities. It is too bad because if Alex Collins gets the majority of carries he will produce great numbers. He is an explosive back who finds and hits the hole hard. Buck Allen isn’t a bad running back either I just think Collins is a better talent. Buck finished with 21 carries for 73 and 5 targets catching 4 of them for 12 yards. Collins took his 12 carries for 55 yards. (Buck-3.48 ypc/ Collins- 4.58 ypc). I noticed that the Ravens run the ball better when they get Flacco under center and get the fullback involved. They are not efficient in the run game when they are lined up in shot gun. Keep an eye on the backfield situation here for the Ravens but as of now we have to continue to treat this as a running back by committee situation unfortunately.
Chicago Bears: On Monday night, the Chicago Bear’s started this year’s 2nd overall pick against the Minnesota Vikings. To be honest, I thought this was a matchup that could blow up in his face. To my surprise, Mitch Tribusky actually played decent. I mean he finished 12 for 25 for 128 yards so not great stats. However, I thought the way he handled himself was a positive sign. Another thing that also impressed me was his ability to evade pressure and extend plays outside of the pocket. I have seen a lot of rookie quarterbacks crap themselves under pressure in the pocket and make mistake after mistake. It wasn’t a notable start but sometimes that is a good thing for a 1st start as that means he didn’t suck! The ground game for the Bears is now Jordan Howard’s again as he got 19 carries to Cohen’s 6 carries. Cohen has been known this year for his receiving but only had 1 catch on 1 target in this one. If Mitch continues to play QB we could see a drop in Cohen’s production as the young QB can use his legs to extend plays and look more downfield than when Glennon under pressure would dump it down to Cohen.
Matchup: I don’t think this one is going to be a popular game for DFS this week. It has a very low point total involving 2 offenses that aren’t very scary, 1 of which is starting a rookie on his 2nd start. The Ravens defense will look to feast off the rookie QB as they rank 2nd in DVOA vs the Pass which doesn’t forecast well for Mitch here. I can’t see the Bears really moving the ball all that much on this defense and I can see the defense being able to cause turnovers. On the other side of the ball Flacco will look to continue to improve on his slow start to the season. His back looks like it is healing and he is able to throw the ball better. A flyer GPP play on Mike Wallace might be worth it in 1 lineup. It’s tough to predict what the ground game is going to look like for the Ravens on a week to week basis so play them at your own risk. Game flow could favor Collins here as Buck is more of a shot gun formation receiving back and Collins is more of the under the center kill the clock back.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans
- Vegas Odds: Browns (+10) at Texans (-10)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Browns (18.25) / Texans (28.25)
Cleveland Browns
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 31 | 15 | -26.1% |
| Defense | 31 | 3 | 12.2% |
Houston Texans
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 7 | 12 | 9.4% |
| Defense | 11 | 4 | -10.4% |
Preview:
Cleveland Browns: What do we do with the Browns. They continue to be a mess year after year and this year isn’t the year it is going to change. I’ll start off on a good note. They got Myles Garrett back and he had a 2-sack game in his 1st NFL game of his career. This will help their pass defense tremendously to finally be able to get a bit of a pass rush. Now to the bad. The Deshone Kizer experiment did not result in a positive outcome so as Cleveland has done in the past, on to the next one! Kevin Hogan is going to start for the Browns this week as he has come in for Kizer the last couple weeks and has done pretty well. Last week when he came in he threw 19 times and completed 16 of them for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns with 1 interception. The ground game was still disappointing as Crowell got the majority of carries at 16 for 60 yards. Duke Johnson Jr. got 6 carries for 20 yards while adding 61 and a touchdown receiving on 3 receptions on 3 targets. He saw a decrease in targets from previous weeks which could be due to the QB change and how close the game was. Instead of the orange helmet for the Browns logo it should just be a big turd because they are shitty.
Houston Texans: The Texans had a rough week losing major pieces on their defense in JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus. This is huge as they are arguably losing their top 2 defenders. Deshawn Watson did not have his best game completing barely 50% of his passes but was able to produce in fantasy with the 5 TD’s coming late in the game once the team was down. DeAndre Hopkins continues to eat up targets getting 12 more against the Chiefs last week for 4 catches and 3 touchdowns. Hopkins is always in play every week. Will Fuller has made a splash coming back from injury with 4 TD’s in 2 games this year and has shown to be a guy that Deshawn likes to air it out to. Lamar Miller produced well again at the running back position with 15 for 74 yards but still is dependent on that TD to make him a good DFS play.
Matchup: The Texans are a 10-point favorite at home which is not surprising. I like the Houston pass game here as the Browns rank 31st in DVOA vs the pass and have been getting torched in the pass game this year. Look for a speedster like Fuller to get behind the defense for a deep bomb from Watson. Hopkins will eat up targets like always and can beat any corner on the Browns. The thing that scares me about the Houston plays here is the game flow might change as they get up by a lot in this game causing them to shy away from the pass and go more run heavy. The Browns are a huge question mark. We don’t know who is playing QB for sure or what WR is going to get the volume. Stick to Duke Johnson who is the only consistent player on this team who has been producing for our DFS lineups.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints
- Vegas Odds: Lions (+4.5) at Saints (-4.5)
- Game Total: 50
- Projected Points: Lions (22.75) / Saints (27.25)
Detroit Lions
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 21 | 24 | -2.9% |
| Defense | 9 | 5 | -11.5% |
New Orleans Saints
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 4 | 8 | 21.5% |
| Defense | 16 | 30 | 7.8% |
Preview:
Detroit Lions: The Detroit Lions have this stereotype that they are some prolific offense, however, statistically they are below average on the offensive side of the ball ranking 21st in the pass and 24th in the run. The run game is not efficient as it takes many carries a game to get even close to 100 yards rushing which they do not end up surpassing. Ameer Abdullah has started to take over the lead back role in Detroit and has been getting more carries. He only got 10 last week as the Lions went pass heavy. The wide receivers are hard to pinpoint which ones are going to get the points. Golden Tate gets the targets but not the touchdowns, while Marvin Jones Golladay, Fells, and some backs take the receiving touchdowns. The Lions defense on the other hand has had the stereotype of being a leaky defense yet they have been very solid this year ranking top 10 in both the run and pass defenses. They ran into a hot and improving Cam Newton and were exposed a little. They don’t get an easier matchup here at New Orleans.
New Orleans Saints: So, the Adrian Peterson experiment is done and over with as they traded him to the Arizona Cardinals. This will obviously expand the roles of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. We do not know how they will be used yet with the increase in volume for each. Many will speculate that Kamara is going to be PPR gold. That is fine but my rebuttal would be this. AP only rushed the ball 6.75 times a game on average and never was in during receiving situations, that was Kamara’s role. So, are these 7 carries going to be delegated to Kamara or Ingram? We will have to wait and see. The Saint defense started off brutal at the beginning of the year but has played better in their last 2 games. However, one of these games was against the Dolphins who are terrible on offense right now. If we take away the Dolphins game because they are bad, the New Orleans D on turf this season has given up 32.5 points per game. They play at home this week.
Matchup: A projected shootout here with a Vegas total of 50 we get Drew Brees and the Saints at home who are coming in well rested off of their bye week. The Saints are a lot better of a team in the Super Dome where they play well. The offense is scary there and always has potential to blow up. The much-improved Lions defense will have their hands full vs the home favorite Saint’s offense. Micheal Thomas should be covered by Darius Slay in a nice matchup here. Fleener could have a nice game as the Lions rank 28th in DVOA vs opposing TE’s. With AP out the RB situation in New Orleans is intriguing as we will want to keep an eye on the usage between Kamara and Ingram. The Lions offense is simpler. They will target Tate, run with Abdullah, and more than likely throw touchdowns to somebody other than these two (joking but not really). The New Orleans defense doesn’t match up well against teams when playing on turf as they can get exposed by speed guys on the opposing offensives. Marvin Jones is a guy who could get behind the defense here for a big one.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
- Vegas Odds: Packers (n/a) at Vikings(n/a)
- Game Total: n/a
- Projected Points: Packers (n/a) / Vikings (n/a)
Green Bay Packers
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 10 | 4 | 15.4% |
| Defense | 19 | 20 | 3.7% |
Minnesota Vikings
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 3 | 21 | 14.3% |
| Defense | 21 | 11 | 2.6% |
Preview:
Green Bay Packers: The Packers come into the divisional matchup vs the Vikings on a high note. Aaron Rodgers drove the team down the field with 1 minute and 13 seconds left to score a game winning touchdown which he threw to Devante Adams. In this game, I saw Mike McCarthy start to salivate as the rookie Aaron Jones ran 19 times for 125 yards and a TD. He is going to be the bell cow as long as Montgomery is out. My guess is they will let Montgomery rest now that they know they have something in this kid. Mike McCarthy is obsessed with getting a running game and when he has one he loves to use it. If Montgomery is out, Aaron Jones will get at least 15 carries for sure and likely 20. He is in play for sure in all formats. Devante Adams came back from his concussion last week and I said on AfterHours that it concerned me because I thought he would take a lot away from Jordy and Cobb…. Well that happened. Adams finished with 11 targets, 6 catches for 66 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cobb had 29 yards on 4 catches and Jordy had 2 catches for 24 yards and a TD. Jordy left the game in after the second to last drive for the packers with a Hamstring injury which he is saying is fine. With Jordy getting older and his injury history this definitely concerns me so we need to keep an eye on him. Jordy has now scored in every game he has played this year. Talk about safe!
Minnesota Vikings: We found out on Monday night that Sam Bradford’s week 1 performance vs the Saints was a fluke or he is still injured. Either of them is not good for the Vikings or his DFS weapons. When Bradford is right, we see his weapons shine, especially on the turf in Minnesota. When Sam is not right, we see a statue in the pocket that is completely different. Unfortunately, throughout Sam’s career he has never really been right in his career. Stefon Diggs is still an elite talent he just needs someone to be able to get him the ball! He only had 1 catch for 4 yards against the Bears. Adam Theilen had 8 targets catching 5 of them for 34 yards. He is in the same boat as Diggs, they just need someone to get them the ball and they will eat. The running back situation for the Vikings is a developing situation. McKinnon was the guy who got the most touches last week and is also the most explosive talent. The coaching staff gave him 16 carries where he took them for 95 yards and a TD. He also was able to catch 6 balls for 51 yards. Latavious Murray ran the ball 12 times for 31 yards. It will be interesting to see how they utilize these running backs throughout the season.
Matchup: The Vikings are going from the opposing QB being a rookie making his 1st start to Aaron Rodgers, that is quite the difference. The Packers have almost everyone back healthy that they were missing and if they can get David Baktiahri back this week who is their other tackle that would be a huge thing for them. The Vikings have a great pass rush and will want to put pressure on Rodgers so having the O-Line back in tact will be great. Xavier Rhodes more than likely won’t be able to shadow anyone because the Packers do a good job about moving their weapons around the field to avoid this and open up opportunities. Rhodes will get a mix of Adams and Jordy if he can go. The Vikings actually rank better vs the run this year than the pass which is interesting. They are in the bottom 3rd of the league vs the pass. If Rodgers can get time he should be able to move the ball on them. Look for the Packers to try to establish the run again here with Aaron Jones. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings haven’t stated who is the starter this week. I don’t know what to make of this but I would like to have some exposure to the Vikings WR as they will get open vs this Packers Secondary. Theilen and Diggs just need someone to get them the ball!!
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders
- Vegas Odds: Chargers (n/a) at Raiders (n/a)
- Game Total: n/a
- Projected Points: Chargers (n/a) / Raiders (n/a)
Los Angeles Chargers
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 9 | 26 | 2.8% |
| Defense | 12 | 26 | 2.4% |
Oakland Raiders
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 12 | 13 | 6.9% |
| Defense | 30 | 19 | 15.1 |
Preview:
Oakland Raiders: The Raiders offense has been a disappointing fantasy offense to this point in the season. What happened to Amari Cooper? You can say whatever you want about his matchup and Crabtree taking his opportunities but I think it’s simpler than that. He looks slow and uninterested in the game. I watched him basically fake run block or run a streak route which looked like it was 75% of his speed. His only catch on the day was a 7-yard slant route. The only guy we can take in this offense is Crabtree regardless of the QB. He looked to be Manuel’s favorite target in the game getting 8 targets catching 6 for 82 and a TD. Other than Crabtree I do not have much to discuss for Oakland until Carr comes back healthy to boost some of these offensive weapons for the Raiders. Marshawn Lynch continues to be average getting 12 carries and gaining 43 yards. While he did score a touchdown, it was on 2 yards run that was set up by a red zone Crabtree catch. I am hearing that Carr is going to play this week however we don’t know how his back is going to be as he fractured it 2 weeks ago. Keep an eye out for this situation. If Carr is in I think everyone gets a little bit of a boost but I cant say I think Carr is going to be the Carr we know.
Los Angles Chargers: MELVIN! My boy from the University of Wisconsin- Madison (my school) went off last week. We can silent the leg injury noise and deem Melvin as Healthy. I want to thank Patio Joe for making me pivot to Melvin on 1 of my teams. He carried 20 times for 105 yards but did his damage through the receiving game with 5 catches for 68 yards and 2 touchdowns. Phillip Rivers threw the ball 44 times and only completed 21 of them for 258 yards. Keenan Allen got the targets he is use to with 12 but only caught 4 of them for 67 yards. Hunter Henry is now the tight end in San Diego as he got 8 targets catching 3 of them for 42 yards and a TD. If Rivers is going to keep chucking it this much the Receiving options are always going to be in play.
Matchup: The Chargers are getting a juicy matchup here vs a very bad Oakland defense. I think that the Ravens looked good vs the Raiders last week and the Chargers are more talented than the Ravens. I think Melvin can eat again vs the Oakland run defense. Alex Collins had some big holes vs this defense and if Melvin can get those holes he can take one to the house. Rivers is also in play this week against the 30th team vs the pass in DVOA. When you combine that with him throwing a high number of attempts he should produce in this spot. The Raiders are more uncertain here as we think Carr will play but we are not sure. If he does play we also don’t know how his back will affect him. There is no line to this game so Vegas feels the same way. Crabtree is the only guy producing to the level we want in fantasy right now but gets a tough matchup against Casey Heyward.
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars
- Vegas Odds: Rams (+2.5) at Jaguars (-2.5)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Rams (20) / Jaguars (22.5)
Los Angeles Rams
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 5 | 22 | 5.3% |
| Defense | 8 | 18 | -8.8% |
Jacksonville Jaguars
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 23 | 6 | 1.9% |
| Defense | 1 | 31 | -23.7% |
Preview:
Los Angeles Rams: The Rams came into the game having a sneaky matchup vs the Seahawks where they ranked 30th DVOA vs the run and 7th or so vs the Pass. So what did the Rams decide to do… Throw the ball. Jared Goff threw 47 times completing 22 of them with no touchdowns and 2 interceptions. I don’t really understand the gameplan for the Rams in this one? Todd Gurley disappointed but I don’t think it was really his fault. Throughout the game he was getting used sparingly. He would get 1 carry then they would sub him out for Tavon Austin, who was used as a running back a lot in this game, or Gurley was moved to the outside Wide Receiver position. Watching their games in the past the Rams have the most success when Gurley is in the slot position not on the outside. All in all, Gurley finished with 14 carries for 43 yards. Gurley in the 1st have had a nice run to the pylon which was inches away from a TD but instead got knocked out of his hands and went out of bounds in the end zone leading to a touchback and turnover. Quite the swing there. Gurley could never get in a flow as he was not in consistently. I blame his performance more on the game plan and coaching staff than Gurley here. Tyler Higbee was a guy who popped a little bit to me when watching this game. He seemed like a guy that Goff liked to target here so keep an eye on him in the coming weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars: The defense is elite and the running game is what carries them. That is going to be the Jacksonville Jaguars identify this whole year and it will not change. Leonard Fournette ran 28 times for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns. The dude is a beast and as long as he stays healthy he is going to be an elite fantasy option. There is nothing we need to discuss for Jacksonville in the pass game. We don’t want to roster Bortles and the wide receivers do not get the volume. The Jags defense is what we thought they were, elite. They picked off Ben 5 times last week and took 2 to the house. The Jags will continue to win games using the Defense + Run formula.
Matchup: Jared Goff had a tough time vs the Seahawks secondary last week which is top 10 in the league, but now he gets the league’s best secondary and I think he will have a hard time. The Rams need to go back to what won them games this year and not pass the ball 70% of the time vs an elite secondary and a weak run defense. Todd Gurley like Lev Bell last week is going against the Jags defense who now ranks 31st in DVOA vs the run and should be a good spot for him this week. He needs to be utilized better by the coaching staff to get that ceiling that we want. If the Rams come out passing a bunch it is going to be a long day. The Rams defense gets to face an absolute bell cow that should get his this week. The Rams rank 18th in DVOA vs the run. I look for this game to be a run heavy game with very little passing attempts, at least it should be.
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons
- Vegas Odds: Dolphins (+11.5) at Falcons (-11.5)
- Game Total: 47
- Projected Points: Dolphins (17.75) / Falcons (29.25)
Miami Dolphins
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 29 | 30 | -28.4% |
| Defense | 29 | 2 | 3% |
Atlanta Falcons
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 14 | 3 | 13.1% |
| Defense | 17 | 29 | 8.1% |
Preview:
Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins had a great matchup week 5 vs the Titans who are a terrible defense. The Dolphins scored 16 points. Jay Cutler sucks and cannot be relied upon to run an offense. He clearly came back just because of the money and does not really care about the games. He went 12 for 26 for 92 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Jarvis Landry was the only receiver with more than 1 catch as he caught 5 balls for 44 yards and 1 touchdown on 10 targets. Devante Parker went down with an ankle injury and is questionable for the game this week. If he is out the Miami offense gets even worse than it already is. Jay Ajayi got his volume of 25 carries but was only able to run for 77 yards. It is going to be hard for Ajayi to really break free with absolutely no threats in the passing game, especially if Parker can’t go. Miami has not produced much on the offensive side of the ball this year so we should not target them in DFS.
Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons got a much-needed bye week in week 5 as they had their top 2 receivers go down in week 4. Julio Jones is going to be back this week looking to exploit this weak secondary on the turf. There is not much to say here on the Falcons besides that the bye allowed them to get healthy for this game this week.
Matchup: The Falcons should eat in this one as they are facing the Dolphins who rank 29th vs the pass in DOVA. Julio on the turf is due for a breakout game and this is the spot for him. If he is not limited by the hip I can’t see him not going off. The only concern in this game for the DFS ATL weapons is that the game flow might go much like the Packers game did where Julio eats in the 1st half but since they are leading by so much the Falcons turn to the run game leaving Julio stagnant in the 2nd half. His price has dipped as the injury and bye week is the most recent thing we think of when Julio comes to our minds. The Falcons D can get exploited on the ground here as they are ranking 29th vs the rush in DVOA but I can see the Falcons stacking the box and making Jay Cutler beat them. Falcons are a yes in this one and the Dolphins are a no.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos
- Vegas Odds: Giants (+11.5) at Broncos (-11.5)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Giants (14) / Broncos (25.5)
New York Giants
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 20 | 23 | 3.2% |
| Defense | 22 | 28 | 10.5% |
Denver Broncos
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 17 | 9 | 2.1% |
| Defense | 13 | 1 | -14% |
Preview:
New York Giants: The Giants got absolutely bit by the injury bug last week losing Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall for the year and Sterling Shepard also got banged up and is questionable for this week’s game. The Giants already didn’t have a run game and now that their pass game is decimated I’m not sure where they even go from here. Eli has lost all his weapons and their run game is based on the hope that a rookie running back Wayne Gallman can provide a spark. Yikes.
Denver Broncos: The Broncos are coming off of a bye last week. They are now coming home back to Denver where they have played better this season.
Matchup: I cannot see anyone producing for fantasy purposes for the Giants in this game. They are going up against the number one pass defense in the league in DVOA and they can also stop the run. The strength of the Giants was their pass game until they lost their top 3 WR last week. The Broncos defense should be able to shut them down pretty easily. On the Denver side of the ball I like their run game vs the Giants who just gave up a big game to Melvin Gordon. CJ Anderson has been impressive this year and I think they will lean on him a little more as Trevor Simeon is going up against a pretty solid secondary although they haven’t shown it that much this year.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
- Vegas Odds: Patriots (-9.5) at Jets (+9.5)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Patriots (28.5) / Jets (19)
New England Patriots
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 2 | 10 | 23.4% |
| Defense | 32 | 27 | 27.6% |
New York Jets
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 27 | 18 | 14.3% |
| Defense | 18 | 25 | 5.8% |
Preview:
New England Patriots: In a dream matchup for both offenses last week on Thursday night the Patriots and Bucs offenses both under performed. Brady did throw for 303 yards in last week’s game but only threw for 1 touchdown and also threw and interception that was thrown behind his wide receiver by 2 steps. The offensive line is allowing the pressure to get to Brady and he is getting hit quite a bit. Now, Brady has an AC Joint injury in his left shoulder which is always a tricky injury. Chris Hogan is Brady’s favorite target as he led the receivers in targets with 11. I think he is the safest option on the board this week. The running back situation just subbed in Lewis for Burkehead and there is a new 3 headed attack for the Pats. Gillislee lead the 3 with 12 carries but white was targeted 9 times. Lewis is coming back off of his injury and could gain more of a role in the future. For the defense, I think Jameis was a reason why they looked decent. He wasn’t very accurate.
New York Jets: The Jets have the same passing attack as weeks ago with Josh McCown and their average receiving core. The interesting part for the Jets is their run game. With Forte out week 4 we saw Powell and McGuire shine. Week 5 Powell went down and McGuire was left alone in the backfield. Although he didn’t do much week 5 he was going against the stout run D for the Browns that ranks 3rd in DVOA vs the run. If Forte and Powell don’t go this week McGuire will get all the carries.
Matchup: Tom Brady and the Patriots should be able to move the ball against this Jets defense. The interesting part is how the Jets do against the weak Patriots defense. If they can move the ball this has potential to be a shoot-out. We have seen the Patriots defense give up chunks of points in almost all of their games which puts pressure on their offense to throw and score as well. The concerning part is if the below average offense for the Jets can’t keep up with the Patriots offense, the patriots will run the ball and milk the clock. If Forte and Powell are out for the Jets, McGuire will get the start at running back and will be in a great spot vs the NE defense that gives up the points to the running back. He could be a cheap RB option this week.
Pittsburg Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs
- Vegas Odds: Steelers (+5) at Chiefs (-5)
- Game Total: 5
- Projected Points: Steelers (20.25) / Chiefs (25.25)
Pittsburg Steelers
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 15 | 11 | 4.1% |
| Defense | 3 | 15 | 16.5% |
Kansas City Chiefs
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 1 | 1 | 37.1% |
| Defense | 14 | 24 | 3.6% |
Preview:
Pittsburg Steelers: In a great matchup for Lev Bell last week vs the 32nd ranked rush defense he underperformed but was saved by the 10 receptions he had. For some reason, the Steelers threw the ball 55 times. I know they got behind so they had to late but from the beginning they were attacking the air. Maybe it had something to do with Lev Bell’s 35 touches in week 4. AB had a great game vs the Jags secondary as I expected getting 10 receptions on 19 targets for 157 and missing a TD by a PI call. Now onto Ben, he threw 55 times against the best pass defense in the league resulting in 0 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He doesn’t seem like he is rattled by it the way he is talking to the media so expect him to keep chucking it to AB this week. Smith-Schuster has emerged as their slot receiver who has put up decent numbers in his 1st couple starts.
Kansas City Chiefs: This offense is dynamic as they rank 1st in both the run and the pass in DVOA. Kareem Hunt has gone over 100 yards rushing in every game this year. Travis Kelce has been ungradable the past 2 weeks. Last week he went 8 for 98 on 11 targets before he was forced to leave with a concussion. Tyreek Hill was able to take one to the house on special teams but didn’t have that dagger play that makes up his ceiling in DFS. It is good to note that Kelce and Hill have not had a week this year where they have both produced in the offense, it has been one or the other.
Matchup: This should be a good game for DFS purposes featuring some of the top DFS options this year. I see that both teams should be able to move the ball if they want to. We have seen that both team’s defenses give up points and have been involved in high scoring games. Take your pick of the weapons here!
San Francisco 49ers at Washington Redskins
- Vegas Odds: 49ers (+10) at Redskins (-10)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: 49ers (18.25) / Redskins (28.25)
San Francisco 49ers
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 28 | 31 | -23.5% |
| Defense | 26 | 14 | 9.2% |
Washington Redskins
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 11 | 20 | 7.8% |
| Defense | 7 | 8 | -17.8% |
Preview:
San Francisco 49ers: Hoyer had a nice game vs Indy last week going 29 of 46 for 353 yards and 2 touchdowns. He was able to get that deep one to Goodwin this week for 51 yards but it wasn’t a score. Goodwin was targeted 11 times. Garcon was also targeted 11 times catching 8 for 94 yards. Kittle was my TE call last week and he came through catching 7 balls for 83 yards and a TD. The pass game was a positive but the running back situation just became a mess. Kyle Shanahan gave Matt Breida got 10 carries to Carlos Hydes 8 and said it was because of the “Hot Hand”. Now he says that he is going to continue to do this for the rest of the season! WTF! Okay so I am not sure what the means but here is what we know. Carlos Hyde is still the starter but at any point Kyle can think Breida is the hot hand and Hyde could be done for a drive, quarter, or game. I can’t trust this situation. Fade.
Washington Redskins: The Redskins had a bye last week and will still be without their top corner in Josh Norman.
Matchup: The Washington defense has been better at home this year than on the road and they will be at home in this one. They are good against both the run and the pass which scares me away from any 49ers weapons. I especially can’t play Hyde here as we don’t know what his usage is going to be. Garcon is probably the only option as he is Hoyer’s favorite weapon and is guaranteed volume. On the other side here for Washington, I like the pass game. San Fran ranks 26th in DVOA vs the pass and we have seen them give up points this year. I wouldn’t hate a Cousins and Pryor stack this week coming off a bye and some more time to strengthen that connection.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals
- Vegas Odds: Buccaneers (-1.5) at Cardinals (+1.5)
- Game Total:5
- Projected Points: Buccaneers (23) / Cardinals (21.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 8 | 16 | 12.6% |
| Defense | 27 | 6 | 7.6% |
Arizona Cardinals
Ranks:
| Pass | Rush | DVOA | |
| Offense | 26 | 32 | -20.7% |
| Defense | 24 | 7 | -.1% |
Preview:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs last week weren’t able to exploit the weak Patriots defense last week but look to bounce back vs a Cardinals defense who got torched vs Carson Wentz last week. Doug Martin came back from suspension and carried it 13 times for 74 yards and a touchdown. Mike Evans got 8 targets catching 5 of them for only 49 yards. He hasn’t really done much this year. DeSean Jackson was targeted 9 times for 5 catches and 106 yards. He has been Jameis’ deep threat to no surprise. Brate is the TE you want on this team. OJ Howard has only really had one long catch vs the bad Giants TE defense.
Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals sign Adrian Peterson this week in hopes to boost their run game. I expect him to be used this week otherwise why sign him? However, last week was the typical Cardinals this year as they had a non-existent run game being forced to pass 44 times. I don’t really see AP coming into the mix and changing the run game all that much. JJ Nelson and John Brown came back last week and now made these 44 attempts evenly spread out between 5 receivers now. Andre Ellington was still productive catching 9 of his 10 targets for 65 yards.
Matchup: This is an interesting one because we know the Bucs are bad against the pass and we know that the Cardinals, although not efficient, throw the ball a lot. Can the Cardinals high volume attempts against the Bucs defense result in some high points for fantasy owners? Or will they decided to try to be balanced and use the new toy in AP on the ground? It will be interesting to see how they use him. For the Bucs, it won’t be easy to run the ball against the Cardinals but Doug Martin did look good last week. He is also fresh as he didn’t play for the 1st couple of weeks. Patrick Peterson will be on Mike Evans in this one so look for Desean Jackson to get a deep one here much like Torrey Smith did last week vs the Cardinals. Also, we saw Ertz eat up the Cardinals defense last week so Cameron Brate could have another nice performance coming off a nice little Thursday night game for him.
