The Pitching Prospectus w/ @CK_013 – 8.11.17

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Previously known as the GPP Pitching Prospectus, this article will now cover pitchers for both cash games and GPPs. I spend a majority of my day researching pitchers so I figured in addition to my thoughts on GPP flyers, why not list the guys I like in cash as well. 

To be clear I typically don’t make my final choices until moments before the games start. This is because I am always checking the WiseTake Pitching model to see what opposing line-up numbers look like. I do however have a short list of pitchers that I am interested in for the day and will be sharing that with you.

The Pitching Prospectus w/ CK013

Slate Notes: In my opinion this is a tough cash slate.  There are some decent pitchers in decent spots but we have some concerns with all of them, a great GPP slate for sure. 

Cash Games

Higher Cost Options – 

  1. Rich Hill – I would imagine Hill we be the cash chalk due to his match-up against the Padres and the fact that he is a heavy favorite tonight. Hill has struggled in his young career with blisters and while recently he seems to be ok, his game logs have been rough. I will admit that his opponents were a little tougher (aside from the Mets who usually struggle against lefties), still in cash games we must respect the 60+ performances we saw from Rich the last time he faced the Padres.
  2. Jimmy Nelson – A WiseTake favorite for sure, Nelson is having a great year. The last time he faced these Reds he put up a 58 on FanDuel despite the non-strikeout stigma around them. Nelson has been even better at home despite the small park but the small park still scares me a bit for cash. Still, I respect Nelson enough to list him as a cash option.
  3. Carlos Carrasco – Carrasco has been struggling lately but he has also had some tougher match-ups. On FanDuel he is under-priced and I’d expect him to be a popular choice as well. Carrasco has great road splits and the Rays obviously K a ton, only thing that worries me is Carrasco has really struggled with lefties this season and the Ray’s have a bunch of powerful ones. On FanDuel I expect Carrasco to be much more popular at his price.

Lower Cost  Options – 

  1. Ubaldo Jiminez – Everyone may make fun of him but look at his game logs. Ubaldo has does a good job of limiting damage and has even provided strikeout. The A’s have hit lefties much better than righties and Miley just took these guys to school last night. If there are enough solid value bats it would be much safer to pay up at both spots tonight but if you can’t make it work you may have to consider him.
  2. Nick Pivetta – DraftKings only for cash and yes this play is very risky for a cash game but I think this kid has talent and the Mets have actually been striking out at a 30.7% clip over the last seven days, first in the league. I’d prefer to pay up for both my pitchers on DraftKings but if there isn’t enough value I may have to take this route. Pivetta has severe reverse splits and the Mets will send out a lefty heavy line-up, Pivetta has also pitched significantly better at home and already shut down a better version of these Mets in Citi Field earlier this year.

GPP

Higher Cost Options –

  1. Jimmy Nelson – I really like Nelson in GPPs, again he’s a WiseTake favorite (we play him a lot). The Reds aren’t exactly a great team to target against especially in small parks but Nelson put up a big score against them earlier this year and that was in CIN, he has pitched even better at home.
  2. Charlie Morton – It’s 100 degrees in Arlington, Texas but Morton has been good. Morton has been racking up K’s while maintaining a ground-ball rate above 50%. The Rangers strikeout in bunches and Morton’s hard contact numbers are below 30% to both lefties and righties.
  3. Jacob Faria – This one is risky against the Indians, a team that is ranked near the bottom of the league in strikeouts this season. Interestingly enough, the Indians actually have a 25.2% strikeout rate over the last week that’s fourth in the league. Faria is young but he has shown poise and is expected to do big things over his career.

Cheaper Options –

  1. Nick Pivetta – The Mets have been striking out at a 30.7% clip over the last seven days, first in the league. Pivetta has severe reverse splits and the Mets will send out a lefty heavy line-up, Pivetta has also pitched significantly better at home and already shut down a better version of these Mets in Citi Field earlier this year.
  2. Mike Foltynewicz – He is coming off of a spectactular game in which he recorded 11Ks. We have seen these flashes but he hasn’t been consistent and the Cardinals seem to be pretty hot right now, still we have the respect the upside here Folty has shown us.
  3. Ubaldo Jiminez – Everyone may make fun of him but look at his game logs. Ubaldo has does a good job of limiting damage and has even provided strikeout. The A’s have hit lefties much better than righties and Miley just took these guys to school last night. If there are enough solid value bats it would be much safer to pay up at both spots tonight but if you can’t make it work you may have to consider him.
  4. Homer Bailey – Bailey got rocked in his last start against the Cardinals but he has a couple solid games out there. Bailey has big time blow-up potential but he gets a match-up against a strikeout happy Brewers team who have been kind of cold as of late. Bailey is VERY risky but when considering his price, the upside is there (deep, deep, deep down).