The Pitching Prospectus w/ @CK_013 – 8.15.17

0
822

Previously known as the GPP Pitching Prospectus, this article will now cover pitchers for both cash games and GPPs. I spend a majority of my day researching pitchers so I figured in addition to my thoughts on GPP flyers, why not list the guys I like in cash as well. 

To be clear I typically don’t make my final choices until moments before the games start. This is because I am always checking the WiseTake Pitching model to see what opposing line-up numbers look like. I do however have a short list of pitchers that I am interested in for the day and will be sharing that with you.

The Pitching Prospectus w/ CK013

Slate Notes: Solid slate for all formats. 

Cash Games

Higher Cost Options – 

  1. Alex Wood – Big favorite and a big discount on across both sites when you consider his match-up. Wood’s ceiling is concerning but his safety is respectable against the White Sox at home. I have concerns with his ceiling due to the Dodger tendency to pull their guys early but the floor seems relatively high.
  2. Danny Salazar – Looks good since making his return from the DL but his pitch count has been a little concerning and the Twins have been putting up a lot of runs especially in that ball park. Salazar should rack up some strikeouts for sure which raises his floor and he is a pretty big favorite.
  3. Jacob deGrom – He’s an underdog and that’s a big reason he’s not on top of the list. He is also coming off of a game where he was hit with the ball on his triceps and experienced bruising. The Mets don’t have much to play for here so I am concerned with a shorter leash. Still, his strikeout rate combined with the Yankee strikeout rate provides us with a solid floor even if deGrom gives up a few runs or gets pulled after 5.

Cheaper  Options – 

  1. Dinelson Lamet – The match-up combined with his high K-rate gives us a decent floor, in cash he should probably be reserved for DraftKings though I think on FanDuel he is a great GPP option tonight. The Padres’ line was steamed up so someone seems to like this kid and he is always a WiseTake favorite.

GPP

Higher Cost Options –

  1. Sonny Gray – The Mets have been striking out a lot lately and this will be Gray’s first start at home. Gray’s ground-ball rate is pretty solid and the Mets are a team that has to win by the long-ball. Gray is very interesting to me in GPPs but more so on DraftKings where you need two pitchers.
  2. Jacob deGrom – There is uncertainty with deGrom’s health and the Mets motivation (other than beating their subway rivals) but he brings us some solid K-upside and the Yankees have been striking out at a decent clip.
  3. Madison Bumgarner – He’s not my favorite option but he could be a little sneaky. He has looked better recently and Miami is not a team people are looking to pick on. This is purely a game theory play but thought he was worth mentioning due to his upside.

Cheaper Options –

  1. Dinelson Lamet – Definitely like Lamet today against the Phillies. He won’t be super sneaky due to his recent success but I think he’s cheap enough that we can make it up with bats. He has high hard contact rates but also a very high K rate and he’s at home.
  2. Luis Castillo – Kid has upside but the Cubs have been hot. The wind is blowing in a bit though and the Cubs can certainly strikeout with the best of them. Maybe reserve this guy in deeper GPPs, but check him out. Definitely expect the Cubs to be a little popular after their explosion last night.
  3. Dan Straily – Straily is an interesting SP2 option on DraftKings at his price. The total has dropped and he has become a favorite of the dismal Giants. The K-upside concerns me but if Straily can get a few and go some distance he could easily provide some nice return on his salary.
  4. Tyler Skaggs – Kid has upside and the Nationals haven’t sold me that they are quiet over their offensive slump and they will be without Harper for at least a little while. There is plenty of risk here but that’s what GPPs are all about and Skaggs and super cheap.