UFC Fight Night 123 Cash/GPP Picks

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Cash/GPP Locks UFC Fight Night 123 Swanson vs Ortega

Dec. 9, 2017 Fresno, California

*Odds are from 5dimes as of 6pm Pacific 12/8/17

WiseTake nation we have another UFC Fight Night card majority of these fights are evenly matched and some fights carry risk. I changed the format, so scroll down to the “My Picks” section. That is where I detailed each fight breakdown with my thoughts and analysis on each fighter and possible outcome of the fight.

Cash/GPP Locks

These fighters based on matchup I feel have the best chance of winning and having high point totals. These are my core fighters I will build my line-up around.

#11 Liz Carmouche (10-5) $8400 -170

Eryk Anders (9-0) $9200 -325

Mereb Dvalishvili (7-2) $8500 -160

Alex Perez (18-4) $8900 -355

Scott Holtzman (10-2) $8300 -130

#4 Cub Swanson (25-7) $8100 +100 *you can stack this fight in cash 5 rounds

#6 Brian Ortega (12-0 1NC) $8100 -110 * you can stack this fight in cash 5 rounds

Benito Lopez (8-0) $8200 -105

Luke Sanders (11-1) $9000 -235

 

GPP Plays

These fighters are in tougher matchups but have KO power or submission skills that could end the fight and will differentiate your lineup from the rest.

Trevin Giles (10-0) $9100 -255

Davi Ramos (6-2) $9100 -410 * it would not surprise me if he came up short

#15 Jason Knight (20-3) $9300 -310 *eats a lot of punches but should grind out the victory barring taking to many body kicks

Luri Alcantara (34-8 1NC) $8800 -190 *risk with this guy but he should win

#7 Marlon Moraes (19-5-1) $8600 -130

Gabriel Benitez (19-7) $6900 +280 ** I really like the flexibility that his salary gives you this fight should be a striking battle Knight eats allot of shots and this dude kicks like mule!

 

Cash/GPP Value Plays

In order to fit the higher priced fighters in your lineup you need value, based on matchup I feel these fighters have the best chance of scoring enough based on salary to get you into the money line.

#10 Alexis Davis (18-7) $7800 +160 *should be a close fight and could get a split decision victory

#8 Aljamain Sterling (14-2) $7600 +120 * cash viable

Gabriel Benitez (19-7) $6900 +280 ** I really like the flexibility that his salary gives you. This fight should be a striking battle Knight eats a lot of shots and this dude kicks like mule!

 

GPP Flyers

These are risky for GPP’s only

Antonio Braga Neto (9-2 1NC) $7100 +235 *3-year layoff? Very risky insane submissions

Albert Morales (7-2-1) $8000 -105

Chris Gruetzemacher (13-2) $7500 +365 *could weasel out a wrestle fuck win

Carls John De Tomas (8-1) $7300 +320 * almost made the fade list

Markus Perez (9-0) $7000 +295

Andre Soukhamthath (11-5) $7200 +215 * risky but game

Darrell Horcher (13-2) $7900 +120

 

Fades

These are fighters I am personally going to fade to projected point total and previous point production based on fighting style.

Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) $7400 +175

Frankie Saenz (11-5) $7700 +150

 

My Picks

 

Antonio Braga Neto (9-2 1NC) $7100 +235 vs Trevin Giles (10-0) $9100 -255

Braga Neto is coming off a three-year layoff recovering from injuries and starting up a few businesses. Braga Neto now 30 years old is world class BJJ guy. Giles is a very athletic and powerful prospect.

My Pick – Trevin Giles

 

Chris Gruetzemacher (13-2) $7500 +365 vs Davi Ramos (6-2) $9100 -410

Ramos is high level grappler with slick submissions coming off a fight at a higher weight class. Like most BJJ GI fighters his takedowns are suspect. Gruetzemacher “Gritz” is not impressive and will try to grind Ramos into the cage and will make Ramos earn the victory. This fight stylistically looks like a nightmare I personally will fade this fight in my lineups. I’m torn on who to pick.

My Pick – Davi Ramos

 

Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) $7400 +175 vs Luri Alcantara (34-8 1NC) $8800 -190

Alcantara is a crafty veteran is a dynamic striker with decent grappling the knock on him his is inconsistency but should have the grit to pull off a decision victory. Perez is notorious for at least three illegal strikes eye poke, nut shot or cage grab. Perez likes to stand trade and look to try and squeak out a decision.

My Pick – Luri Alcantara

 

Frankie Saenz (11-5) $7700 +150 vs Mereb Dvalishvili (7-2) $8500 -160

Dvalishvili making his UFC debut coming off a 15 second KO that gave him the opportunity to get to the big show. Dvalishvili has solid power in his right hand with a grappling base with decent takedown defense. Saenz is very hittable and is getting up in age (37) if he can’t takedown Dvalishvili down this is a stand-up battle with Dvalishvili has the upper hand.

My Pick – Mereb Dvalishvili

 

Carls John De Tomas (8-1) $7300 +320 vs Alex Perez (18-4) $8900 -355

Perez is only 25 years old with 22 professional fights, has solid submissions and a grapple first so I could see allot of takedowns. De Tomas is only 21 years old is an above average striker, but he will need to defend the takedown and don’t see that happening.

My Pick – Alex Perez

 

Luke Sanders (11-1) $9000 -235 vs Andre Soukhamthath (11-5) $7200 +215

Sanders has good cardio with solid striking and strong takedowns. Soukhamthath is a gritty brawler has a tendency to gas the hole in his game is being taken down.

My Pick – Luke Sanders

 

#10 Alexis Davis (18-7) $7800 +160 vs #11 Liz Carmouche (10-5) $8400 -170

This fight is almost a near fade for me the first time they fought Carmouche circled the cage and Davis lumbered forward with her Muay Thai style. But that fight was four years ago, and Davis was away from fighting with the birth of her child. Carmouche is a gritty grappler with decent takedowns and solid ground and pound. Honestly this fight does not interest me at all I’m picking Carmouche.

My Pick – Liz Carmouche

 

Albert Morales (7-2-1) $8000 -105 vs Benito Lopez (8-0) $8200 -105

Lopez is coming off a split decision win on Dana white contender series which to me is not very impressive but does train at Team Alpha male so I’m thinking he will have solid takedowns and be a tough matchup. Morales has fought higher level competition and has solid power but the hole in his game is getting taken down and controlled. This fight is a coin toss but I’m leaning Lopez with multiple takedowns.

My Pick – Benito Lopez

 

Eryk Anders (9-0) $9200 -325 vs Markus Perez (9-0) $7000 +295

Anders is a BCS national champion for the Alabama Crimson Tide. He is a very athletic, powerful striker with great cardio and appears to be very exciting prospect with incredible takedowns and crazy power. Perez making his UFC debut.

My Pick – Eryk Anders

 

Scott Holtzman (10-2) $8300 -130 vs Darrell Horcher (13-2) $7900 +120

Both these guys seem evenly matched, but I give the advantage to Holtzman which he will have more takedowns and grind out a victory. Horcher seems to have a slight edge in striking but he struggles against wrestlers.

My Pick – Scott Holtzman

 

#7 Marlon Moraes (19-5-1) $8600 -130 vs #8 Aljamain Sterling (14-2) $7600 +120

Sterling was supposed to fight Yaya but due to injury Moraes stepped in on short notice. Moraes is a world class striker who will have a tough fight against Sterling who will use distance and striking to set up his takedowns who will pressure Moraes and frustrate him. Sterling will need to stick the game plan in order to win but with Moraes coming in short notice and a tough fight against Dodson I’m leaning Sterling.

My Pick – Aljamain Sterling

 

#15 Jason Knight (20-3) $9300 -310 vs Gabriel Benitez (19-7) $6900 +280

Knight Salary is up there, and I don’t see this as Knight finishing Benitez early, I do see this as turning into a striking battle Benitez has some wicked body kicks and I see Knight may look to utilize his wrestling and shoot for takedowns and work from top control. Not sure Knight pays off his salary.

My Pick – Jason Knight

 

#4 Cub Swanson (25-7) $8100 +100 vs #6 Brian Ortega (12-0 1NC) $8100 -110

This fight is very exciting and intriguing fight I really can’t wait to see how this fight unfolds. Cub is a monster and looking to show that he is still the guy that deserves a title shot. He has allot of battles under his belt going up against a guy like Ortega that it looks like the UFC is trying to groom as one of the next up and coming stars.

This fight has fight of the night written all over it. Ortega is riding a solid four-fight win streak with some third-round victories. He has slick submission skills with decent striking he is improving in every aspect of his game. My concern it seems like he is always fighting from behind until he throws that Hail Mary and scores a late round finish.

Cub has seemed to break his hands in every fight, but I think that this fight stays standing and just turns into a brawl which I give the advantage to Cub.

From a DFS stand point this fight is stackable in cash from a GPP standpoint if you are leaning more towards Ortega for the submission finish which could happen cub has been submitted five times.

My Pick – Cub Swanson