Cash/GPP Locks UFC Fight Night 123 Swanson vs Ortega
Dec. 9, 2017 Fresno, California
*Odds are from 5dimes as of 6pm Pacific 12/8/17
WiseTake nation we have another UFC Fight Night card majority of these fights are evenly matched and some fights carry risk. I changed the format, so scroll down to the “My Picks” section. That is where I detailed each fight breakdown with my thoughts and analysis on each fighter and possible outcome of the fight.
Cash/GPP Locks
These fighters based on matchup I feel have the best chance of winning and having high point totals. These are my core fighters I will build my line-up around.
#11 Liz Carmouche (10-5) $8400 -170
Eryk Anders (9-0) $9200 -325
Mereb Dvalishvili (7-2) $8500 -160
Alex Perez (18-4) $8900 -355
Scott Holtzman (10-2) $8300 -130
#4 Cub Swanson (25-7) $8100 +100 *you can stack this fight in cash 5 rounds
#6 Brian Ortega (12-0 1NC) $8100 -110 * you can stack this fight in cash 5 rounds
Benito Lopez (8-0) $8200 -105
Luke Sanders (11-1) $9000 -235
GPP Plays
These fighters are in tougher matchups but have KO power or submission skills that could end the fight and will differentiate your lineup from the rest.
Trevin Giles (10-0) $9100 -255
Davi Ramos (6-2) $9100 -410 * it would not surprise me if he came up short
#15 Jason Knight (20-3) $9300 -310 *eats a lot of punches but should grind out the victory barring taking to many body kicks
Luri Alcantara (34-8 1NC) $8800 -190 *risk with this guy but he should win
#7 Marlon Moraes (19-5-1) $8600 -130
Gabriel Benitez (19-7) $6900 +280 ** I really like the flexibility that his salary gives you this fight should be a striking battle Knight eats allot of shots and this dude kicks like mule!
Cash/GPP Value Plays
In order to fit the higher priced fighters in your lineup you need value, based on matchup I feel these fighters have the best chance of scoring enough based on salary to get you into the money line.
#10 Alexis Davis (18-7) $7800 +160 *should be a close fight and could get a split decision victory
#8 Aljamain Sterling (14-2) $7600 +120 * cash viable
Gabriel Benitez (19-7) $6900 +280 ** I really like the flexibility that his salary gives you. This fight should be a striking battle Knight eats a lot of shots and this dude kicks like mule!
GPP Flyers
These are risky for GPP’s only
Antonio Braga Neto (9-2 1NC) $7100 +235 *3-year layoff? Very risky insane submissions
Albert Morales (7-2-1) $8000 -105
Chris Gruetzemacher (13-2) $7500 +365 *could weasel out a wrestle fuck win
Carls John De Tomas (8-1) $7300 +320 * almost made the fade list
Markus Perez (9-0) $7000 +295
Andre Soukhamthath (11-5) $7200 +215 * risky but game
Darrell Horcher (13-2) $7900 +120
Fades
These are fighters I am personally going to fade to projected point total and previous point production based on fighting style.
Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) $7400 +175
Frankie Saenz (11-5) $7700 +150
My Picks
Antonio Braga Neto (9-2 1NC) $7100 +235 vs Trevin Giles (10-0) $9100 -255
Braga Neto is coming off a three-year layoff recovering from injuries and starting up a few businesses. Braga Neto now 30 years old is world class BJJ guy. Giles is a very athletic and powerful prospect.
My Pick – Trevin Giles
Chris Gruetzemacher (13-2) $7500 +365 vs Davi Ramos (6-2) $9100 -410
Ramos is high level grappler with slick submissions coming off a fight at a higher weight class. Like most BJJ GI fighters his takedowns are suspect. Gruetzemacher “Gritz” is not impressive and will try to grind Ramos into the cage and will make Ramos earn the victory. This fight stylistically looks like a nightmare I personally will fade this fight in my lineups. I’m torn on who to pick.
My Pick – Davi Ramos
Alejandro Perez (19-6-1) $7400 +175 vs Luri Alcantara (34-8 1NC) $8800 -190
Alcantara is a crafty veteran is a dynamic striker with decent grappling the knock on him his is inconsistency but should have the grit to pull off a decision victory. Perez is notorious for at least three illegal strikes eye poke, nut shot or cage grab. Perez likes to stand trade and look to try and squeak out a decision.
My Pick – Luri Alcantara
Frankie Saenz (11-5) $7700 +150 vs Mereb Dvalishvili (7-2) $8500 -160
Dvalishvili making his UFC debut coming off a 15 second KO that gave him the opportunity to get to the big show. Dvalishvili has solid power in his right hand with a grappling base with decent takedown defense. Saenz is very hittable and is getting up in age (37) if he can’t takedown Dvalishvili down this is a stand-up battle with Dvalishvili has the upper hand.
My Pick – Mereb Dvalishvili
Carls John De Tomas (8-1) $7300 +320 vs Alex Perez (18-4) $8900 -355
Perez is only 25 years old with 22 professional fights, has solid submissions and a grapple first so I could see allot of takedowns. De Tomas is only 21 years old is an above average striker, but he will need to defend the takedown and don’t see that happening.
My Pick – Alex Perez
Luke Sanders (11-1) $9000 -235 vs Andre Soukhamthath (11-5) $7200 +215
Sanders has good cardio with solid striking and strong takedowns. Soukhamthath is a gritty brawler has a tendency to gas the hole in his game is being taken down.
My Pick – Luke Sanders
#10 Alexis Davis (18-7) $7800 +160 vs #11 Liz Carmouche (10-5) $8400 -170
This fight is almost a near fade for me the first time they fought Carmouche circled the cage and Davis lumbered forward with her Muay Thai style. But that fight was four years ago, and Davis was away from fighting with the birth of her child. Carmouche is a gritty grappler with decent takedowns and solid ground and pound. Honestly this fight does not interest me at all I’m picking Carmouche.
My Pick – Liz Carmouche
Albert Morales (7-2-1) $8000 -105 vs Benito Lopez (8-0) $8200 -105
Lopez is coming off a split decision win on Dana white contender series which to me is not very impressive but does train at Team Alpha male so I’m thinking he will have solid takedowns and be a tough matchup. Morales has fought higher level competition and has solid power but the hole in his game is getting taken down and controlled. This fight is a coin toss but I’m leaning Lopez with multiple takedowns.
My Pick – Benito Lopez
Eryk Anders (9-0) $9200 -325 vs Markus Perez (9-0) $7000 +295
Anders is a BCS national champion for the Alabama Crimson Tide. He is a very athletic, powerful striker with great cardio and appears to be very exciting prospect with incredible takedowns and crazy power. Perez making his UFC debut.
My Pick – Eryk Anders
Scott Holtzman (10-2) $8300 -130 vs Darrell Horcher (13-2) $7900 +120
Both these guys seem evenly matched, but I give the advantage to Holtzman which he will have more takedowns and grind out a victory. Horcher seems to have a slight edge in striking but he struggles against wrestlers.
My Pick – Scott Holtzman
#7 Marlon Moraes (19-5-1) $8600 -130 vs #8 Aljamain Sterling (14-2) $7600 +120
Sterling was supposed to fight Yaya but due to injury Moraes stepped in on short notice. Moraes is a world class striker who will have a tough fight against Sterling who will use distance and striking to set up his takedowns who will pressure Moraes and frustrate him. Sterling will need to stick the game plan in order to win but with Moraes coming in short notice and a tough fight against Dodson I’m leaning Sterling.
My Pick – Aljamain Sterling
#15 Jason Knight (20-3) $9300 -310 vs Gabriel Benitez (19-7) $6900 +280
Knight Salary is up there, and I don’t see this as Knight finishing Benitez early, I do see this as turning into a striking battle Benitez has some wicked body kicks and I see Knight may look to utilize his wrestling and shoot for takedowns and work from top control. Not sure Knight pays off his salary.
My Pick – Jason Knight
#4 Cub Swanson (25-7) $8100 +100 vs #6 Brian Ortega (12-0 1NC) $8100 -110
This fight is very exciting and intriguing fight I really can’t wait to see how this fight unfolds. Cub is a monster and looking to show that he is still the guy that deserves a title shot. He has allot of battles under his belt going up against a guy like Ortega that it looks like the UFC is trying to groom as one of the next up and coming stars.
This fight has fight of the night written all over it. Ortega is riding a solid four-fight win streak with some third-round victories. He has slick submission skills with decent striking he is improving in every aspect of his game. My concern it seems like he is always fighting from behind until he throws that Hail Mary and scores a late round finish.
Cub has seemed to break his hands in every fight, but I think that this fight stays standing and just turns into a brawl which I give the advantage to Cub.
From a DFS stand point this fight is stackable in cash from a GPP standpoint if you are leaning more towards Ortega for the submission finish which could happen cub has been submitted five times.
My Pick – Cub Swanson
