The Weekend Change-Up w/ @CK_013 – 7.8.17 (Updated)

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We try to give our team members some time off during the weekend to spend with their families and the overall personal maintenance that life requires.

We do however realize that many of our subscribers work hard during the week and would like to spend their weekends playing DFS when they actually have the time to relax and enjoy it. With that said we got you covered!

This article will be released on weekends whenever our regular weekday articles such as “Straight Cash Homie” & “Attacking GPP” are not being posted. It will cover cash games mostly will some GPP alternatives listed as well. Get Money!!!

The Weekend Change-Up w/ CK013

Cash Games

Slate Notes: There isn’t a true top dog on tonight’s main slate. You have Jake Arrieta and Jeff Samardzija at the top of the lists but neither are priced in the double-digits which means there really aren’t too many bats that are off-limits. 

Pitchers: Paying up for pitchers in cash games is usually recommended when an elite pitcher takes the hill.

Jake Arrieta – Sticking with the usual template we are looking for the safest options. Arrieta is not having a great year and his match-up lacks the K-upside for GPPs. Still the low team wOBA and ISO from the Pirates could give us the security we are looking for in a larger (wind-less) Wrigley Field.

Jeff Samardzija – If you don’t want to trust Arrieta as your cash game pitcher, the shark is a decent alternative. He has better home splits which makes sense due to his home park being in San Francisco. Miami is a better offensive team than Pittsburgh which is why I give a slight edge to Arrieta, still if you would rather go with the shark he is certainly feasible in cash games.

Brandon McCarthy- McCarthy makes his return and he is super cheap. On FanDuel I am sticking with one of the guys mentioned above but on DraftKings McCarthy could be interesting. Obviously I would expect a lot of people to play both the Shark and Arrieta in DK cash games but McCarthy is a huge favorite at home against the Royals. There are some concerns with how long the Dodgers will let him go considering its his first game back from the DL and he is backed by the number one ranked bullpen in the league so he isn’t needed as badly. The only reason he’s on this list is because his price will allow you more flexibility when selecting your bats.

Catchers – Very scarce position typically a good idea to pay down.

Alex Avila – I’d expect Avila to be a popular choice today and in cash games that’s okay. He hits at the top of the order and not many catchers do that tonight for his price. Avila has an xOBA of .474 this year vs right handed pitching that’s worth mentioning.

Jonathan Lucroy – Not having the season we saw last year once he arrived in Texas but still has upside. He bats lower in the order but his price is good and he draws a great match-up against Jesse Chavez.

Mike Zunino – He typically bats 9th and that sucks, but he has tremendous power and considering his upside he is super cheap. If your looking to pay down even further from Avila, Zunino could be your guy.

UPDATE: Chris Herrman – Just announced he’s batting 2nd and has a match-up in Chase Field against a right-handed pitcher.

First Base – This is a posiition you can usually pay up or down before depending on the scarcity of the slate. When there are value guys hitting in good spots and a Kershaw on the slate, I like to pay down but if not I have no issue paying up for some big bats.

Joey Votto – He is a beast and he faces a righty in Coors-Light (Chase Field). Votto has a .438 xOBA vs right handed pitching this year. Ball park, platoon match-up and Vegas totals are all a go.

Paul Goldschmidt – His price on FanDuel has actually come down a but at just over 4K. Goldy has a .420 xOBA to righties this season and over his last 14 days he’s managed a 46.15% hard contact rate vs righties.

Cody Bellinger – It is really hot in L.A. today and Ian Kennedy is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. Bellinger is cheaper than the two mentioned above so if you need a couple hundred free’d he fits perfectly fine. Kennedy has a .345 xOBA to lefties and Bellinger has a .349 xOBA against righties.

Second Base – I try to pay down at second base due to the positional scarcity it has on a daily basis.

Chase Utley – Leading off against Ian Kennedy in a day game (Pacific Time) with that heat. Utley should see plenty of at bats and if they get to Kennedy they get a bad bullpen. Not a ton of upside but he’s leading off and if he can find ways to get on he has some big bats behind him. 

Jed Lowrie – If Patio Joe is playing cash tonight he will probably still play his buddy Jed Lowrie better known as Cash Game Porn, despite the fact that he is attending the Dodger game tonight. His price has come-up from earlier in the season but compared to his production its probably still too cheap.

Third Base – I usually pay up here due to the positional normally being loaded but at times you can find a bargain.

Nolan Arenado – Against Quintana it isn’t the most optimal but Arenado has a great xOBA vs lefties this season. He brings major upside and the fact that they are playing in Coors raises his floor a bit.

Adrian Beltre – Beltre has been heating up and Jesse Chavez has terrible road splits. It’s going to be hot in Texas and I expect to see Texas light it up.

Justin Turner – Turner has reverse splits which means he actually hits better against pitchers of his same handedness (righties). He has a .410 xOBA vs righties and again it’s going to be hot in L.A. with a local first pitch of 4PM (pacific).

Kyle Seager – Here is your value play at 3B if you choose to pay down. He is cheap but his xOBA numbers indicated he isn’t hiting the ball as bad as it may seem. Luck has certainly gone against him this season but we expect that to turn around at some point. Take advantage while he is cheap because last year he was usually in the mid to high threes.

Short Stop – Like second base this position is usually pretty scarce so I usually look to punt.

Corey Seager – If you want to pay up this guy is certainly an option. I have mentioned the heat in L.A. enough you get the drill. Seager has big time upside and has the platoon split in his favor.

Elvis Andrus – If he is back he then draws a great match-up against Chavez plus he is having a great year.

Marcus Semien – He’s back, he’s cheap and he has been hitting the ball fairly well.

Outfield – Like Patio Joe always says I too typically pay down at-least for one outfielder, and pay up for at least one too.

  1. Ben Zobrist – Leading off vs Nova (value)
  2. Kyle Schwarber – Super cheap, batting 5th
  3. Shin-Soo Choo – Leading off against Jesse Chavez
  4. Nomar Mazara – Match-up against Jesse Chavez
  5. Scott Schleber – Good xOBA vs righties, good park
  6. Adam Duvall – Big Power, great park, reverse splits
  7. Denard Span – Leading off against a lefty making his debut
  8. Khris Davis – Big power upside, reverse splits
  9. Nelson Cruz – Big power upside

GPPs

Pitchers:

Luis Castillo – Super cheap with big upside. D-Backs are a tough team to play a pitcher against especially at home but this team brings K-upside. I think if your playing a lot of D-Backs in cash then you may want to hedge a GPP line-up with this kid. D-Backs K a lot.

GPP Stacks:

Tigers – Clevinger’s numbers this season shows a higher xOBA to lefties however his hard contact rates are actually higher against righties. His career splits show he is usually a reverse splits pitcher. I expect the Tigers to be swinging tonight after Carrasco shut them down last night.

Rangers – Jesse Chavez.. on the road…

Reds – These guys can hit and they get a big park boost without the increased prices.

Dodgers – Hot in L.A. and they face a fly-ball pitcher that struggles against lefties.

Indians – Verlander hasn’t looked great and if he doesn’t get strikeouts he typically gets hit hard, plus the Detroit bullpen is behind him.